Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
A 1-0 Middle Tennessee team that just hung 117 points in its opener walks into Allen Fieldhouse, where No. 17 Kansas rarely lets a night stay comfortable for long.
The Matchup
Middle Tennessee arrives at Allen Fieldhouse at 1-0 after scoring 117 points and giving up 73 in its opener against Fisk, and the Blue Raiders did it with balance. Quintero Barnett led the way with 24 points, 4 assists and 9-of-15 shooting, Eli Rice added 18 points with 5 made threes, and Marcus Whitlock Jr. scored 17 with 4 threes of his own. That is three separate scorers who can stretch a defense, and it matters in a building where the home team wants to turn the game into a parade to the rim.
Kansas, ranked No. 17 in the AP poll, is also 1-0 after beating Fordham 95-65. Tre White scored 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting, and Tyran Stokes added 15 points and 7 rebounds. The Jayhawks have the deeper roster, the home crowd, and the clear talent edge, and nobody in this preview is arguing otherwise.
The team numbers paint a closer picture than the building's reputation does. Across that mix, Middle Tennessee has outscored its opponents by more per game than Kansas has. The Blue Raiders put up 117 in their opener and averaged 75.4 points per game last season while allowing 72.8. Kansas scored 95 in its opener and averaged 75.1 last season while allowing 69.1. Kansas defends better. Middle Tennessee, so far, scores just as freely.
Key Factors
The first factor is shot-making depth on the visiting side. Barnett, Rice and Whitlock Jr. combined for 59 points in the opener, and Rice and Whitlock Jr. made 9 threes between them. An underdog covering a number this large does not need to win the game. It needs to keep scoring in the stretches when the favorite relaxes, and Middle Tennessee has three proven outlets for exactly those minutes.
The second factor is Kansas's path to a blowout, and it is real. White was ruthlessly efficient against Fordham, Stokes gives the Jayhawks size and finishing inside, and Allen Fieldhouse crowds feed runs that bury visiting teams in five-minute bursts. If Kansas defends the three-point line the way it defended last season, when it allowed 69.1 points per game, Middle Tennessee's shooters will have to work much harder for their looks than they did against Fisk.
The honest counterpoint is the step up in class. Fisk is not Kansas, and an opener played at Middle Tennessee's pace tells us little about how the Blue Raiders handle Big 12 length and a hostile building. If Kansas turns this into a half-court squeeze early and the threes stop falling, a 27.5-point cushion can disappear in one long second-half run. The cover case rests on Middle Tennessee's scoring holding up well enough, for long enough, against the best defense it has seen.
Kansas should control this game at home, but Middle Tennessee can score in bunches and has enough shooting to keep answering long after the result is decided. The cushion is simply too wide for a team that puts the ball in the basket this well. Take Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +27.5 at -108.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/6) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 8:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPNU |
| Venue | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence |
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks -27.5 |
| Total | 150.5 |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks -20,000 |
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1 prop- Darryn Peterson Points VOIDOver 13.5 -106
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