Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Minnesota is 6-3 without Anthony Edwards, which says plenty about its defense, and New Orleans scores 121.6 points a night in its own building. The road price here is built on a star who will watch this one in a suit until December.

The Matchup

Minnesota is 6-3, scores 118.8 points per game, and allows 107.6, and it has done most of it the hard way. Anthony Edwards is out after knee surgery until around December 21, and Donte DiVincenzo is out after Achilles surgery until around April 2.

What remains is a defense built around Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, with LaMelo Ball running a fast, committee offense that leads the team at 17.2 points per game and Jonathan Kuminga giving the Wolves a second athlete on the wing. A 6-3 start without the franchise player is a genuine achievement, and it is also a profile with a thin margin for error.

New Orleans is 4-4, scores 121.6, and allows 119.3, a team that turns every game into a race. Zion Williamson leads the Pelicans at 21.5 points per game, Jordan Poole and Dejounte Murray share the backcourt, and Bennedict Mathurin scores off the bench. The report is manageable. Yves Missi is out with a knee bruise until around November 9, and Trey Murphy III is day-to-day with a knee issue. Keep an eye on whether Murphy plays before placing a bet, because New Orleans's spacing thins quickly without his shooting.

Both teams have played fewer than ten games, so last season is blended in, and it supports the favorite more than the underdog. Minnesota outscored teams by 3.4 points per game in 2025-26, while New Orleans was outscored by 4.5. DraftKings makes Minnesota a 4.5-point road favorite at Smoothie King Center, with a total of 229.5 and the Timberwolves at -165 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Minnesota's defense is the best single unit in this game, and it travels. Gobert at the rim changes what Williamson can do in the paint, and McDaniels can take the hardest perimeter assignment without help. That is the honest case for the favorite, and against most home teams it would be enough.

New Orleans is not most home teams. The Pelicans score in waves, their building feeds the pace, and a defense-first road team has to keep scoring itself to hold a margin, which is where Edwards's absence finally bills Minnesota.

The Wolves' offense without Edwards is shared and streaky. Ball creates, Kuminga attacks closeouts, and the bench has carried real stretches of this start, but there is no single player who manufactures six points when the home crowd is loud and the offense stalls. A 4.5-point road spread is exactly the size that one dry fourth-quarter stretch erases.

New Orleans only needs its ordinary home game. The Pelicans' problem is defensive, and Minnesota is the wrong opponent to fix that against, but the price is not asking New Orleans to stop the Wolves. It is asking them to score enough, in their own building, that a closer-less road favorite cannot get separation.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.