New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis is the league's last unbeaten team, outscoring opponents by 15.2 points a game, and somehow the spread at home is still in single digits. New Orleans can score with anyone, but its bench is thinning at exactly the wrong time for a trip like this.

The Matchup

Memphis is 6-0, the league's last unbeaten team, and the margin is the impressive part. The Grizzlies score 121.2 points per game and allow 106.0, a 15.2-point gap that no other team on this slate comes close to.

Zach Edey anchors the middle, Jaylen Wells and Cedric Coward give Memphis length and shooting on the wings, and Ty Jerome steadies the offense. This is a complete reversal from last season, when Memphis went 25-57, and two weeks of blowouts say the reversal is built on defense rather than a hot shooting streak.

New Orleans is 2-4 and fun, scoring 119.7 points per game while allowing 117.8, which means Pelicans games are shootouts by default. Zion Williamson is the headliner and Dejounte Murray the organizer, but the rotation is fraying. Jordan Poole is out with a left ankle sprain until around November 4, and Yves Missi is out with a knee bruise until around November 8. Trey Murphy III is day-to-day with a knee problem and a return date of November 2, and he is New Orleans' best floor-spacer.

DraftKings makes Memphis a 6.5-point home favorite at FedExForum, with the Grizzlies at -225 on the moneyline and a total of 235.5.

Key Factors

The defensive gap decides shootouts like this one. New Orleans needs to score in the high 110s to win, and Memphis is the rare team that can defend without fouling and still run its own score up. Edey changes how the Pelicans have to attack, because Williamson's drives end at a 7-foot-4 wall instead of at the rim, and Memphis's wings are long enough to stay with New Orleans' shooters when the ball swings.

Murphy's knee is the status that matters most for the underdog. Keep an eye on whether Murphy plays before placing a bet. With him, New Orleans can play five-out lineups that drag Edey away from the basket. Without him, and with Poole and Missi already out, the Pelicans are down to a short rotation on the road against the deepest team in the league so far, and fourth quarters in Memphis have been where unbeaten runs go to grow.

Memphis also defends its home floor with fresh legs. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Quinten Post are both day-to-day for the Grizzlies, with back and ankle problems respectively, but neither absence touches the starting group that has built this start. The favorite's risk is complacency against a talented underdog, and Williamson is good enough to punish a lazy first half. Over 48 minutes, though, depth and defense are the safer bet than a short-handed shootout team.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.