Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Minnesota is missing its best player and still looks like the steadier team in this matchup by a wide margin. Milwaukee has defended nobody through six games, and a defense that leaky turns even a short-handed favorite into a comfortable one at home.

The Matchup

Minnesota is 4-3 with the profile of a team that wins with defense first. The Timberwolves score 120.0 points per game and allow just 108.7, and they went 49-33 last season. LaMelo Ball runs the offense, Rudy Gobert owns the paint, and Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga give Minnesota size and switchability on the wings.

The absences are real and they are stated plainly. Anthony Edwards is out after right knee surgery and is not expected back until December 21. Donte DiVincenzo is out after right Achilles surgery and is not expected back until April. Both men also sat out Minnesota's last two games, against the Clippers and at San Antonio, so the Timberwolves' recent numbers already reflect life without them.

Milwaukee is 1-5 and allowing 126.2 points per game, the worst defensive number on this slate. The Bucks score 113.0 a night behind Tyler Herro, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner, but a team that cannot string together stops has to win shootouts, and Milwaukee went 32-50 last season doing exactly this. DraftKings makes Minnesota a 10.5-point home favorite at Target Center, with the Timberwolves at -485 on the moneyline and a total of 233.5.

Key Factors

The matchup starts at Milwaukee's defensive end. The Bucks give up 126.2 points per game, and Minnesota's offense is built to punish exactly that: Ball bends a defense in pick and roll, Gobert rolls hard enough to hold the help in the paint, and McDaniels and Kuminga cut into the space that opens. A defense this loose does not get to choose its poison.

Turner and Kel'el Ware give Milwaukee real size, and that is the Bucks' path: slow the game, protect the rim, and make Minnesota's half-court offense prove it can score without Edwards. Herro can also get hot enough to wreck any margin for a quarter at a time.

The honest caveat is the number itself. Laying double digits with a team missing its best player leaves a thin margin for a cold shooting night, and Minnesota's offense has to come from committee work rather than one star. What carries the pick anyway is the other bench: Milwaukee has not defended a single opponent well enough this season to trust it to keep a road game close for four quarters.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.