Minnesota Wild vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Minnesota allows 2.26 goals per game, the stingiest mark on the Tuesday slate, and Montreal scores 3.47 a night in front of the loudest building in the league. Kirill Kaprizov has 31 points for the Wild, and Tuesday night asks whether Montreal's attack can crack the one defense that has solved everybody else.

The Matchup

Minnesota is 12-3-4, scoring 3.32 goals per game and allowing 2.26, a +1.05 differential that is the best on the Tuesday slate. The Wild win the same way most nights: the defensive structure holds, the goaltending finishes the job, and Kirill Kaprizov supplies the goals that matter.

Kaprizov leads Minnesota with 31 points on 16 goals, and Quinn Hughes has 20 assists from the blue line. The road has not bothered them at all: Minnesota is 7-3-2 away from home, which is the profile of a team whose game travels because it is built on structure rather than energy.

Montreal is 11-3-3, scoring 3.47 per game and allowing 3.12 for a +0.35 differential, and the Canadiens are a genuinely good home team at 5-2-2 in the Bell Centre. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 11 goals, and Lane Hutson has 17 points on 14 assists. Montreal scores more than Minnesota and plays in the harder building to visit. What the Canadiens do not do is defend at Minnesota's level, and that gap, about nine-tenths of a goal a night, is the whole argument in this game.

Key Factors

The goaltending duel is as good as it gets on a Tuesday. Jesper Wallstedt has a 1.99 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage for Minnesota in 16 games, and Jacob Fowler is at 2.16 and .925 for Montreal in ten games with two shutouts. Neither team gets a soft goal to lean on, so the game likely turns on which attack can manufacture the one extra chance.

Minnesota's power play, converting 26.9 percent, is the sharpest tool in the game against a Montreal kill of 78.3 percent. Montreal converts only 15.4 percent against a Minnesota kill of 78.3 percent, so the Canadiens' route runs through even strength, where Minnesota's structure is strongest.

Both blue lines are missing people. Filip Gustavsson is out tonight for Minnesota. He is on injured reserve after hip surgery, with a return date of November 19, which is why Wallstedt owns the net. Jared Spurgeon is out on injured reserve with a lower body injury, and Brock Faber is out on injured reserve after skull surgery.

Montreal lists Mike Matheson as out with a lower body injury, Ivan Demidov is out on injured reserve with an ankle fracture, and Jake Evans is day-to-day with a hand injury. Keep an eye on whether Evans plays before placing a bet.

The Montreal case is Caufield and Hutson at home, Fowler matching Wallstedt save for save, and a Minnesota defense missing Spurgeon and Faber. It fails on the season-long arithmetic: Montreal allows 3.12 a night, Minnesota allows 2.26, and the Wild have lost three road games in regulation all season. Montreal needs its best defensive night of the year. Minnesota just needs its usual one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.