Minnesota Wild vs Vancouver Canucks Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Minnesota is the better team in Vancouver, but the goaltending change on the second night of its back-to-back turns a comfortable margin play into a win-only play. Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes should still create enough against a Canucks team allowing 4.67 goals per game, just not enough to demand a two-goal road win from Calvin Pickard.

The Matchup

The crease rewrites this game. Minnesota's defensive reputation this season, 2.45 goals against per game, belongs to Jesper Wallstedt, who has seven wins and a .918 save percentage. Wallstedt started Saturday in Seattle, where the Wild won 5-1, and head coach John Hynes has already named his Sunday goalie. Calvin Pickard starts, and his only start this season was a 5-2 loss to Winnipeg on Oct 13 in which he allowed five goals on 25 shots, a 5.00 goals-against average and an .800 save percentage.

Across the ice, Vancouver is expected to start Leevi Merilainen, who is 1-2-1 with a 2.95 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage and has been above .900 in six of his seven appearances, while Thatcher Demko sits out with a hip injury. The team numbers say Minnesota has the goaltending edge. The two men actually playing say Vancouver does, and that is the single biggest reason the margin in this game shrinks.

The skaters still tilt toward Minnesota, and it is not close. The Wild are 7-3-2, and Kirill Kaprizov scored 26 seconds in on Saturday in Seattle on his way to a goal and an assist. Kaprizov's 12 goals lead the NHL and his 19 points drive everything Minnesota does, and he skates on a top line with Matt Boldy, whose 56 shots lead the team.

Quinn Hughes, back in Vancouver for the first time since the trade that ended his 459 games and his captaincy there, has 14 points (two goals, 12 assists) and runs games from the back end at more than 27 minutes a night. Vancouver is 2-9-1, 1-4-0 at home, and its honest counterweights are Elias Pettersson, with a team-high 12 points (four goals, eight assists), and Jonathan Lekkerimaki, who has nine points and a three-game point streak. That is a real top end for a bad team, but it is two players against a lineup that comes in waves.

Key Factors

Special teams are Minnesota's cleanest path to goals, even on tired legs. The Wild power play converts at 25.7 percent, and Vancouver's penalty kill stops only 65.0 percent, the worst mark in the league, with 14 power-play goals allowed on 40 chances. Kaprizov and Hughes against that kill is the matchup the Canucks have to survive, because a team generating only 20.1 shots per game cannot afford to hand a tired opponent free power-play looks.

The territorial picture points the same way. Minnesota generates 30.6 shots per game and allows 25.7, Vancouver allows 33.5, and the Canucks managed 13 shots in Thursday's 5-2 loss to Detroit. Even accounting for the back-to-back, the Wild should own the puck for most of this night, with Hughes dictating it in the building he used to run.

The injuries cut into Minnesota's margin for error, though. Brock Faber, the defenseman who would normally take the hardest shifts in front of a backup goalie, is on injured reserve with a skull fracture, and Gustavsson and both Marcus and Nick Foligno are on injured reserve too. That thins the exact structure a team needs to protect its backup, on the road, on the second night of a back-to-back, after Saturday's game in Seattle.

So here is the honest counterpoint, and it is strong enough to change the bet. If Pickard's one start was a warning rather than a fluke, Vancouver's path is simple. Pettersson and the in-form Lekkerimaki put two past him early, Merilainen holds up behind a rested team, and Minnesota's tired legs chase a game it was supposed to control.

The Wild have also covered the puck line in only three of their last 10 games, so their wins have not been producing margins even with their starter in net. The skater gap, the power play and the shot volume still say Minnesota wins this game. Nothing in tonight's goaltending picture says it wins by two, and asking a backup who has played once to deliver that margin on a back-to-back is how a good read becomes a bad bet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.