Boston Bruins vs St. Louis Blues Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday
Boston has the best defensive profile on the Thursday slate, scoring 3.77 goals per game and allowing 2.15, and it brings that two-way game to a St. Louis team that has defended its own building well. The Blues have the goaltending to make this a one-goal night, and that tension is the whole game.
The Matchup
Boston is 9-3-1 and owns the most complete profile on the slate: 3.77 goals per game scored, 2.15 allowed, a +1.62 differential that no other Thursday team approaches. David Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 18 points, a team-high 7 goals and 11 assists, and Boston is 4-2-1 on the road, so the profile travels. This is not a home-ice mirage; the Bruins have been the better team in most buildings they have entered.
St. Louis is 5-6-1, scores 2.92 goals per game and allows 3.08, and its best hockey has come at Enterprise Center, where the Blues are 3-2-1. Mason McTavish leads St. Louis with 10 points and a team-high 6 goals, and Dylan Holloway has 7 assists.
The Blues' blue line is thinned by Torey Krug's long-term ankle injury and Dillon Dube on injured reserve with a neck injury, which matters against a Boston team that cycles pucks below the goal line as well as anyone. Boston reports no injuries, the cleanest sheet on the slate.
Key Factors
The goaltending duel is the game. Jeremy Swayman is at 2.19 and .921 for Boston, and Joel Hofer is at 2.40 and .917 for St. Louis, two of the sharpest profiles in the league, with Jordan Binnington's 4.11 and .846 the drop-off if St. Louis goes the other way. A duel like that compresses margins, which is exactly why this pick is a moneyline: Boston's edge is real, but asking it to win by two against Hofer in his own building asks too much.
Special teams slightly favor Boston without deciding anything. The Bruins convert 22.0 percent of their power plays and kill 80.4 percent, while St. Louis converts 21.9 percent and kills a strong 84.4 percent.
The Blues' kill is the unit most likely to keep this close, because it can erase the one clean edge Boston's top unit usually creates. Boston's counter is depth at even strength: the Bruins allow so little that St. Louis probably needs a power-play goal and a Hofer steal on the same night, and needing both is a thin way to live.
Boston is the better team at both ends, with the slate's widest scoring gap and a goaltender matching anything St. Louis can start. The Blues defend this building well enough to keep it close, which is why the play is the win and not the margin. Take the Boston Bruins moneyline at -105.
Game information
| DATE | Thursday (10/29) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | NHL |
| VENUE | Enterprise Center |
| TOTAL | 5.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Boston Bruins ML |
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