Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Missouri, No. 23 in the AP Top 25, travels to Fayetteville after scoring 3 points at Ole Miss, and Arkansas comes home off a 31-21 win at Vanderbilt. Both teams have had 13 days to sit with those results, and Missouri's offense has more to explain.

The Matchup

Missouri's last game exposed a problem Arkansas can lean on. Missouri scored 3 points in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss, Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards without a touchdown, and Jamal Roberts was held to 39 yards on 20 carries. Roberts has 867 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season, so the talent is proven, but a Missouri ground game that produces 2.0 yards per carry lets a defense ignore it and crowd Simmons.

Arkansas does not need to shut Missouri out to change this game. Arkansas needs the same friction Ole Miss created, because KJ Jackson gives Arkansas a steadier counter than the record suggests. Jackson completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards at 8.1 yards per attempt against Vanderbilt, threw no interceptions, and ran 11 times for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Missouri allows 19.6 points per game, a strong number, but Missouri's defense spent its last game watching its own offense go quiet. If Jackson plays clean again and Arkansas stays in normal downs at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Missouri's margin for error looks much thinner than a 10-point spread suggests.

Key Factors

Missouri's season numbers still command respect. Missouri averages 31.1 points per game, Simmons has thrown 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, and Missouri has given the ball away only 4 times all season. Arkansas, by contrast, averages 21.0 points per game and runs for just 111.6 yards per game at 3.3 yards per carry, a profile that struggles to sustain long drives against a defense allowing 19.6 points per game.

That is the honest path to a Missouri rout: Roberts returns to his season form, Simmons finishes drives the way Simmons did in the 45-17 win over Florida, and Arkansas falls behind an offense Arkansas cannot chase with a thin run game. Arkansas's case rests on place and on Jackson's form.

Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21 on the road with Jackson accounting for 309 yards of offense, and Arkansas's defense, while allowing 26.7 points per game, faces a Missouri attack that just went a full game without a touchdown pass. Both teams arrive with 13 days of rest, so neither side can claim a freshness edge. The game turns on whether Missouri's stalled version or its Florida version travels to Fayetteville.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.