California vs NC State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

California travels to Carter-Finley Stadium at 3-5 after losses of 59-20 at SMU and 41-7 to Wake Forest, and NC State is 3-4 with an offense that converts 52.0 percent on third down. The gap is on the ground, where California rushes for 84.0 yards per game and NC State rushes for 162.3.

The Matchup

NC State can play this game on schedule because CJ Bailey gives the Wolfpack both parts of the offense. Bailey has thrown for 1,763 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and Bailey went 17 of 30 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns in the most recent game. Bailey also carried 9 times for 59 yards at 6.6 yards per carry in that game, so California cannot defend the pass and ignore the quarterback on the ground.

Deandre Desinor caught 3 passes for 79 yards and 1 touchdown in that game, with a long of 58, giving Bailey a downfield outlet. NC State averages 32.3 points per game and 257.6 passing yards. California counters through Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who went 27 of 37 for 265 yards and 1 touchdown in the most recent game, and Chase Hendricks, who caught 7 passes for 83 yards and 1 touchdown in that game.

Hendricks has 54 catches for 498 yards this season. The problem for California is balance. California rushes for 84.0 yards per game at 3.1 yards per carry, so NC State can rush the passer knowing the run is unlikely to punish the Wolfpack, and California allows 31.6 points per game.

Key Factors

Third down tells the story of who controls the second half. NC State converts 52.0 percent, best in this matchup by a wide margin over California at 36.4 percent, so Bailey can extend drives even after a first down setback. California has lost its last two games by 39 and 34 points, allowing 59 to SMU and 41 to Wake Forest, and a defense allowing 31.6 points per game has not shown it can get the stops needed to keep a road game close late.

The counterpoint is Sagapolutele's volume. California averages 285.3 passing yards per game, more than NC State at 257.6, and if Hendricks wins early and California plays from ahead, NC State's pass rush with only 9 sacks this season may not close the game out. NC State also has 9 giveaways, so a Bailey turnover that gives California a short field would change the script.

Still, NC State has the more complete offense, with 13 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns, compared with 13 passing and 8 rushing for California. That balance is what builds a two score lead at home, because California has to defend the run, the quarterback run, and Desinor downfield on the same drive.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.