Boston College vs Duke Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Boston College is 4-3 and just won 49-27 at Georgia Tech, and Duke is 5-2 at Wallace Wade Stadium with a defense allowing 16.0 points per game. Mason McKenzie runs Boston College almost by himself, and Duke's balance is built to test whether one player can carry a road game.

The Matchup

Mason McKenzie is the entire Boston College problem for a defense to solve. McKenzie has thrown for 1,363 yards and rushed for 614 yards this season, and McKenzie carried 16 times for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns at 10.6 yards per carry in the most recent game while also throwing for 101 yards and 1 touchdown. Javarius Green caught 3 passes for 57 yards in that game.

Boston College averages 181.0 rushing yards per game and scored 49 at Georgia Tech, so Duke cannot treat McKenzie as a novelty. Duke answers with the more reliable structure. Nate Sheppard has carried for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns this season, and Sheppard ran for 55 yards and 1 touchdown in the most recent game.

Walker Eget has thrown for 1,440 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and Eget went 14 of 25 for 211 yards in the most recent game. Jonah Burton caught 4 passes for 59 yards in that game. Duke averages 29.9 points per game with 189.7 rushing yards at 5.3 yards per carry, so Duke can match Boston College on the ground without asking Eget to win a shootout.

Key Factors

Duke's defense is the separator that Boston College's recent scoring hides. Duke allows 16.0 points per game with a plus 13.9 net scoring margin, while Boston College allows 23.6 points per game with a plus 0.8 margin. Duke has also protected the ball far better, with 4 giveaways compared with 10 for Boston College, and Duke quarterbacks have thrown 3 interceptions compared with 7 for Boston College.

In a home game where Duke can run Sheppard and play ahead, those extra possessions matter. The counterpoint is McKenzie's ceiling. A quarterback who just rushed for 170 yards at 10.6 per carry can break a game plan with two long runs, and Duke allowed Sheppard to be held to 3.7 yards per carry in the most recent game, a 19-16 win at Virginia that showed Duke can stall.

If Boston College keeps the game close into the fourth quarter and McKenzie keeps the ball on option looks, Duke laying 7.5 gets uncomfortable. Duke's path is discipline on the edges and finishing drives, because Duke converts 43.8 percent on third down compared with 37.5 percent for Boston College, and sustained Sheppard drives wear down a defense that has to chase McKenzie's counterpart all afternoon on the other side.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.