Missouri Tigers vs Marquette Golden Eagles Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 3

Missouri is scoring 97.0 points a game behind Jason Crowe Jr., and Marquette has allowed just 53.0 a game heading into a neutral-site game in Chicago.

The Matchup

Missouri meets Marquette on Sunday at the United Center in Chicago, on Peacock, a neutral floor with Marquette favored by 1.5 points, a total of 153.5, and the Golden Eagles priced at -118 on the moneyline. Missouri is 2-1 out of the Southeastern Conference. Marquette is 2-1 out of the Big East Conference, and Chicago puts a friendly crowd within driving distance of Milwaukee.

This is a strength-on-strength game. Missouri scores 97.0 points a game and allows 66.0, shooting 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from three.

Marquette scores 80.3 a game but allows just 53.0, the stingiest number either team brings into this game, with 6.0 blocks a game protecting the rim. Last season Missouri went 20-13 while scoring 79.2 and allowing 75.5, and Marquette went 12-20 while scoring 75.2 and allowing 75.8, so Marquette's defensive jump this season is the single biggest change on either side of this matchup.

Jason Crowe Jr. drives Missouri at 21.7 points and 4.3 assists a game, and Bryson Tiller adds 8.3 rebounds a game. Marquette spreads it out: Royce Parham leads at 12.0 points a game, Nigel James Jr. adds 4.0 assists a game, and Sananda Fru pulls down 7.3 rebounds a game. Crowe, Tiller, Parham, James, and Fru all carry no injury designations.

Key Factors

Missouri's offense runs through one man, and that cuts both ways. Crowe at 21.7 points a game with the ball in his hands as the lead creator means Marquette can load its defense toward him, and the Golden Eagles have the rim protection behind that pressure to survive drives. Missouri turns the ball over only 7.3 times a game, so the Tigers will get shots up; the question is whether those shots look anything like the clean looks behind their 53 percent shooting.

Marquette's edge is depth and the glass. The Golden Eagles rebound at 43.3 a game to Missouri's 40.0, and their scoring balance means foul trouble or a cold night for one player does not stall them. In a game priced this close, the team that can survive its star's rest minutes usually wins the middle of the second half, and that is Marquette.

The counterpoint is obvious: if Missouri's shooting travels, Marquette cannot keep up. The Tigers at 44 percent from three can bury a defense that allows only 53.0 points a game against lesser offenses, and Crowe is good enough to win a one-possession game by himself late. Marquette's own offense, at 80.3 points a game on 44 percent shooting, has far less margin for a cold stretch.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.