SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Missouri is laying 28.5 against a team that went 19-13 last season and allowed 64.7 points a game. The Tigers just lost at home to Saint Louis, and their one blowout came against a Cleveland State defense that has allowed 95.0 points a game this season.

The Matchup

SIU Edwardsville visits Missouri on Monday night at Mizzou Arena in Columbia, on SECN+, with Missouri a 28.5-point favorite, a total of 147.5, and the Tigers priced at -50,000 on the moneyline against the Cougars at +4,000. Missouri is 1-1 and SIU Edwardsville is 2-1, and the favorite's record already includes a home loss.

Missouri beat Cleveland State 111-50 at home, then lost 90-84 to Saint Louis in the same building. Bryson Tiller leads the Tigers at 18.0 points and 9.0 rebounds a game, and Mark Mitchell Jr. is at 6.0 assists a game. SIU Edwardsville beat Eureka 91-39 and Concordia Chicago 85-61 at home, then lost 78-77 at Lipscomb. Jordan Pickett leads the Cougars at 13.7 points a game, Jayden Riley is at 4.0 assists, and Brennan Miller pulls down 7.7 rebounds a game.

Last season is where this spread starts to look strange. SIU Edwardsville went 19-13, scoring 71.0 points a game and allowing 64.7, a genuinely good defensive team at its level.

Missouri went 20-12, scoring 79.7 and allowing 75.3. The Tigers were better, and they are the SEC team at home, but the gap between those two profiles is a fraction of 28.5 points. Treat this season's blowouts carefully on both sides: Missouri's 111 came against the same Cleveland State defense that allowed 79 to Michigan Dearborn, and SIU Edwardsville's two wins came against visitors who were never going to test it.

Key Factors

Missouri has already lost in this building, and the way it lost matters. Saint Louis scored 90 at Mizzou Arena, which tells you the Tigers' pressure can be beaten and their half-court defense is still sorting itself out. SIU Edwardsville's whole identity last season was making teams play slow, ugly basketball, allowing 64.7 points a game, and a team like that is built to shrink a favorite's margin.

The total of 147.5 works against a 28.5-point cover as well. Missouri's two games reached 161 and 174 points because its opponents played fast or folded. If SIU Edwardsville controls the tempo the way it did last season, the game lands in the 130s or low 140s, and a favorite needs to be nearly perfect to win a game like that by 29.

The honest counterpoint is Missouri's talent edge at home. Tiller is the best player on the floor, Mitchell creates for everyone, and the Tigers did hang 111 in this building a week ago. SIU Edwardsville also has to prove its defense travels: its one road game so far ended with 78 allowed at Lipscomb, and Missouri is a step up from Lipscomb.

If the Tigers turn the Cougars over with their pressure and the game speeds up, the margin can build fast. The bet is on a defensive team with a real identity making Missouri work for it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.