Monmouth Hawks vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Rick Pitino says his St. John's team will not be ready until January, and the Red Storm lay 27.5 in their opener against a Monmouth team that nearly won an exhibition at Seton Hall. Last season's gap between these teams was about 10 points a night.

The Matchup

St. John's is a 27.5-point favorite over Monmouth at Carnesecca Arena in Queens on Monday night, with a total of 152.5, streaming on ESPN+. It is the season opener for both teams. St. John's finished 30-7 last season, scoring 80.9 points per game and allowing 69.6. Monmouth finished 19-15, scoring 72.7 and allowing 70.9. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

St. John's lost the top of its rotation, including Ejiofor, a late first-round pick, and Mitchell, and Rick Pitino has not hidden what that means in November. Pitino said this week that he is not sure his team is going to be ready, and that come January they will be much better.

The new centerpiece is Hall, who averaged 19.3 points a game at Auburn last season and scored 24 in each of the Red Storm's final two exhibitions, against Rutgers and against Texas. Ian Jackson gives the backcourt a second new scoring option, but this is a group still learning to play together.

Monmouth's continuity is modest but real. Spartalis is the Hawks' lone returning starter, and he averaged 10.7 points and 5.1 rebounds as a freshman. Madison Durr is back for a fifth year after averaging 10.3 points in 34 games for a UNC Wilmington team that won the CAA regular-season title last season.

Durr is available to play while his eligibility case remains on appeal, with Monmouth's athletic director confirming he is currently eligible. The Hawks were picked fifth in the CAA preseason poll after losing last season's conference final to Hofstra.

Key Factors

The distance between these teams last season was about 10 points a night. St. John's outscored opponents by 11.3 per game and Monmouth by 1.8, which leaves a gap the home crowd in Queens does not stretch to 27.5 on its own. The favorite's own coach is publicly telling everyone his team is a work in progress, and the Red Storm shot just 35.2 percent from three last season, the kind of shooting profile that lets an underdog hang around when the pressure does not produce turnovers.

Monmouth has already played in a hostile building this fall and nearly won. The Hawks lost an exhibition at Seton Hall 53-50 on a three in the final minute, then beat Rhode Island College 93-59 with Harris scoring 17 points and hitting five threes. That Seton Hall game is the useful one: a low-scoring, half-court fight on the road is exactly the shape Monmouth needs Monday, and a total of 152.5 leaves room for this to become that kind of game if St. John's shooting starts cold.

The counterpoint is Hall, because a scorer that hot can break a game open by himself, and St. John's pressure has buried mid-major guards in this building before. Monmouth turned over most of its roster too, and if Durr's fifth-year poise does not travel, the Hawks' ballhandling could crack early and turn this into a layup line. The bet is that 27.5 asks a self-described unfinished team to play a finished team's game for 40 minutes.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.