Quinnipiac Bobcats vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Michigan State is ranked No. 6 and lays 29.5 at home against Quinnipiac, a team it outscored opponents by only about 7 points a night more than last season. The Spartans lost two of their three exhibitions, including a home loss to UConn in which they shot 3-of-20 from three.

The Matchup

Michigan State is a 29.5-point favorite over Quinnipiac at the Breslin Center in East Lansing on Monday night, with a total of 149.5, streaming on B1G+. It is the season opener for both teams. Michigan State finished 27-8 last season, scoring 78.8 points per game and allowing 68.3. Quinnipiac finished 19-13, scoring 75.3 and allowing 72.0. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Quinnipiac's rebuild starts from a real piece. Keith McKnight played all 32 games as a freshman last season and averaged 11.0 points and 5.9 rebounds while shooting 54.6 percent, good enough for the MAAC All-Rookie Team, and he closed the regular season with a career-high 22 points and 9 rebounds at Canisius.

He was named to the Preseason All-Metro First Team this fall. Around him the Bobcats turned over heavily, losing their top three scorers from last season, with Lucas Sekasi, a guard who won a Division II national championship, among the new faces asked to carry the backcourt.

Michigan State's core is familiar, built around senior captain Coen Carr and point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., and the Spartans' October was uneven. They went 1-2 in exhibitions, beating Incarnate Word 89-59 and then losing to UConn 78-70 at home and at Marquette 86-79.

Against UConn they scored just 22 points in the first half and shot 3-of-20 from three, and at Marquette they shot 25.9 percent in the first half and were outrebounded 33-23. None of that makes Michigan State anything but the better team. It does say the favorite's offense is not arriving in November already humming.

Key Factors

Michigan State outscored its opponents by 10.5 points a night last season and Quinnipiac by 3.3, a gap of about 7 points. Home court helps Michigan State, but it does not turn 7 into 29.5. The line asks for 29.5. For the favorite to get there, it needs its half-court offense to produce at a level its exhibitions did not show, against a Quinnipiac team that scored 75.3 a game last season and has a forward in McKnight who can get his own points when a game slows down.

The total points the same way. The posted 149.5 sits right where these teams lived last season, with Michigan State games averaging about 147 points and Quinnipiac games about the same. In a game played in the 140s, a favorite needs long, efficient runs to build a 30-point margin and then needs its bench to protect it, and opening-night rotations are rarely that tidy. Quinnipiac does not need to win a shootout. It needs ordinary competence for 40 minutes.

The risk is obvious, and it is Quinnipiac's backcourt. The Bobcats lost their top three scorers, and a brand-new set of guards walking into the Breslin Center against Michigan State's pressure can produce the kind of turnover avalanche that turns a 12-point game into a 32-point game in one half.

Fears is exactly the kind of point guard who speeds a young team up until it breaks. If Quinnipiac's guards crack early, this pick is gone. The bet is that the number has already priced in a blowout the favorite still has to go out and produce.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.