La Salle Explorers vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Houston's defense allowed 62.3 points a game last season and its games averaged just over 139 points, yet the Cougars lay 27.5 against a La Salle team that brings its whole starting backcourt back from injury. In a game this low-scoring, that is an enormous share of the total.
The Matchup
Houston is a 27.5-point favorite over La Salle at the Fertitta Center in Houston on Monday night, with a total of 140.5, on CBS Sports Network. It is the season opener for both teams. Houston finished 30-7 last season, scoring 76.9 points per game and allowing 62.3, and lost the national championship game to Michigan. La Salle finished 9-23, scoring 67.1 and allowing 74.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
La Salle's record hides the strangest part of its season. Dockery averaged a team-high 12.5 points while shooting 49.1 percent, and he also led the Explorers in rebounds at 6.1 a game and steals at 1.5, earning a preseason all-conference spot this fall. Around him, Collier, Brewer Jr. and point guard Jaden Johnson all started games last season before season-ending injuries took them out, and all three are back. Darris Nichols spent his first season coaching a rotation that kept breaking; this one starts whole.
Houston is Houston: the same defensive machine, with Tugler back in the frontcourt and a system that turns every possession into work. The Cougars allowed 62.3 points a game last season, the kind of number that usually argues for the favorite in a mismatch. What it also produces is a particular kind of game, slow and grinding, and that shape matters for a spread this size.
Key Factors
This pick lives on arithmetic. Houston's games averaged about 139 points last season, and the total here is 140.5, which tells you the market expects the same grind. A 27.5-point spread in a 140-point game asks the favorite to claim nearly 20 percent of the game's points as pure margin. Houston wins games like this by squeezing, not sprinting, and squeezing produces 18-point wins as often as 30-point wins.
La Salle has just enough to cooperate. Dockery is an efficient scorer who does not need volume, shooting 49.1 percent last season, and a healthy Johnson gives the Explorers a real point guard to get them into their offense against pressure. The Explorers do not need to score 80. In a game tracking toward the high 130s, they need to reach the low 60s and make Houston execute for 40 minutes.
The counterpoint is La Salle's offense against this specific defense, because the Explorers shot a league-worst 41.0 percent from the floor and 29.8 percent from three in the Atlantic 10 last season. Houston's defense turns bad shooting nights into scoreless stretches, and scoreless stretches are how a 12-point game becomes a 30-point game in one half.
If Dockery gets no help and Houston's pressure speeds La Salle up, this pick is in real trouble. It is the thinnest cushion among tonight's big underdogs, and the bet only works if the game stays the kind of slog Houston usually plays.
Houston is going to win this game, probably by a lot, and its defense is the best unit on the floor. But the Cougars' games are slogs that rarely produce the raw points a spread this size needs, and a healthy La Salle backcourt can score just enough to keep the margin honest. The cushion here is thin, and the pick only works if the game stays the kind of slog Houston usually plays. Take the points: La Salle +27.5 at -108.
Game Information
| Date | Monday (11/2) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 8:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | CBSSN |
| Venue | Fertitta Center, Houston |
| Spread | Houston Cougars -27.5 |
| Total | 140.5 |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars -100,000 |
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