Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Montana leads this matchup in assists and shooting, and its one loss came at Oregon. San Francisco is unbeaten at home, but its wins came by 14 and 9, and this spread sits between those two margins.

The Matchup

Montana visits San Francisco on Tuesday night at the Sobrato Center, with San Francisco an 11.5-point favorite and a total of 147.5. No moneyline is posted for this game on the ESPN odds board. The Dons are unbeaten and home, and Montana's one loss came in one of the hardest road buildings in the West, which makes this a better game than the records suggest.

Montana is 1-1, with an 87-69 loss at Oregon and a 105-40 win over Salish Kootenai. The Grizzlies have scored 87.0 points a game and allowed 63.5, shooting 52 percent from the field and 43 percent from three, with 22.5 assists a game. Semaj Carter leads them at 13.0 points a game, LoLo Rudolph leads them at 6.0 assists a game, and Clayton Mpiana leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game. Last season Montana went 18-16, scored 77.3 a game, and allowed 74.6.

San Francisco is 2-0, with a 76-62 win over Radford and a 79-70 win over North Dakota State, both at home. Ben Oosterbaan leads the Dons at 16.0 points a game, Dylan Bordon leads them at 5.5 assists a game, and Ismaila Diagne leads them at 8.5 rebounds a game. San Francisco has scored 77.5 a game and allowed 66.0. Last season the Dons went 17-16, scored 74.7 a game, and allowed 73.2, a team that lived in close games most of the year.

Key Factors

Montana's ball movement is the first factor. The Grizzlies average 22.5 assists a game with Rudolph at 6.0, while San Francisco averages 14.0 as a team. That gap produces better shots, and Montana's shooting line, 52 percent overall and 43 percent from three, is what a well-fed offense looks like. The raw percentages are inflated by the Salish Kootenai game, but the Oregon trip is the more useful data point: Montana scored 69 in Eugene against a high-major defense, which travels.

San Francisco's counterweight is inside. Diagne at 8.5 rebounds a game leads a Dons team averaging 38.5 rebounds against Montana's 35.0, and second-chance points are how a home favorite builds a margin without shooting the lights out. The Dons have also defended well, allowing 66.0 a game, and their two home wins were controlled rather than lucky.

The honest counterpoint is that Montana has not beaten anybody yet, Oregon handled the Grizzlies by 18, and San Francisco is the deeper, more physical team playing at home. If Diagne owns the glass and the Dons push Montana's shooters off the arc, this can get away from the visitors in the second half.

But San Francisco's two wins came by 14 and 9 against Radford and North Dakota State, and the spread asks the Dons for a bigger margin than the North Dakota State win, against the best passing team they have faced. That is a fair price for the points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.