North Dakota State Bison vs San Francisco Dons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

North Dakota State has already played two games, including a rough night at Saint Mary's. San Francisco won its opener at home behind a 20-point night from point guard Dylan Bordon and a double-double from Ismaila Diagne inside.

The Matchup

North Dakota State is 1-1 and the most game-tested team on this slate. Most recently the Bison went to Saint Mary's and lost, with Karl Poom scoring 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting, Max Iversen adding 11 points and 3 assists, and Rob Diaz III scoring 9. The Saint Mary's game itself was a rout: the Gaels won 105-64, made a program-record 20 three-pointers and shot 67 percent, so the Bison's road test showed them a top West Coast Conference night at its harshest.

San Francisco is 1-0 after a 76-62 home win over Radford. Dylan Bordon ran the show with 20 points and 7 assists, Ismaila Diagne posted 16 points and 11 rebounds, and Gustav Knudsen added 13 points and 6 rebounds. The Dons have a lead guard in form and a big man who controlled the paint in the opener, a combination that wins a lot of home games at the Sobrato Center.

North Dakota State won 27 games last season, averaging 80.3 points per game while allowing 70.2, one of the best scoring margins in the country at its level. San Francisco averaged 74.7 and allowed 73.2 last season. This year's early returns favor the Dons at home, and the Saint Mary's rout is the honest mark against the Bison, but it came against a stronger team than this one, on a record shooting night that says as much about the Gaels as it does about North Dakota State.

Key Factors

The first factor is Diagne inside for San Francisco. A 16-point, 11-rebound opener sets the terms of this game: if he controls the paint again, North Dakota State will have to score from the perimeter to keep up, and Bordon's 7 assists show the Dons create good shots out of that inside presence.

The second factor is North Dakota State's early game count. The Bison have already played at Saint Mary's, one of the hardest mid-major road environments in the West, and Poom's efficient 15 points there, on a night almost nothing else worked, shows they have a scorer who travels. A team playing its third game, against a home team playing its second, has had one more live night to sort its rotations out.

The counterpoint is San Francisco's home form and balance. The Dons defended well in their opener, allowing 62 points, and Bordon gives them the best guard on the floor. If Diagne dominates the glass and Bordon controls the tempo, San Francisco can win this by double digits. The Bison case is program pedigree and early road reps: a 27-win team from last season, already tested away from home this week, getting more than a possession's worth of points in what projects as a close, physical game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.