Nashville Predators vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Anaheim converts 38.5 percent on its power play and scores 3.83 goals per game, yet the Ducks allow 3.67 and have lost more home games than they have won. Nashville kills 88.5 percent of its penalties behind Juuse Saros, and Wednesday is a test of whether the league's hottest power play can crack the unit built to stop it.

The Matchup

Anaheim is 10-7-1, scoring 3.83 goals per game and allowing 3.67, a +0.16 differential from the most entertaining team on the Wednesday slate. Cutter Gauthier leads the Ducks with 15 goals, Leo Carlsson has 26 points, and Jackson LaCombe has 21 assists from the blue line. The strange part is where Anaheim wins: the Ducks are 7-3-0 on the road and 3-4-1 at Honda Center, so the home crowd has watched the defensive end leak all season while the road version keeps stealing games.

Nashville is 8-4-5, scoring 3.00 per game and allowing 2.82 for a +0.18 differential, and the Predators are almost exactly Anaheim's mirror: less fireworks, far more control. Steven Stamkos leads Nashville with 10 goals, Filip Forsberg has 20 points, and Roman Josi has 18 assists. Nashville is 2-1-3 on the road, one regulation road loss all season, because the Predators' game is built on the two things that travel best: a penalty kill that erases mistakes and a goaltender who finishes the job.

Key Factors

The headline collision is Anaheim's power play against Nashville's kill. The Ducks convert 38.5 percent with the extra man, a remarkable number, and the Predators kill 88.5 percent of their penalties, the best unit in this game by a distance.

Something bends, and the bet here is that the kill bends less, because Nashville's second special teams edge runs the other way too: the Predators convert 29.8 percent on their own power play against an Anaheim kill of just 73.0 percent. Anaheim needs both phases to go its way. Nashville needs one.

Juuse Saros is at a 2.62 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage in 12 games for Nashville. Lukas Dostal is at 3.76 and .866 in 10 games for Anaheim, with Ville Husso at 3.55 and .868 behind him. Anaheim scores enough to overcome soft goaltending some nights, and the Ducks have done it all season on the road.

At home, behind that crease, the math keeps catching up with them. Anaheim is missing Troy Terry, who is on injured reserve after hip surgery, plus A.J. Greer, Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling, all on injured reserve. Nashville lists Jonathan Marchessault as day-to-day with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Marchessault plays before placing a bet.

The favorite case is Anaheim's attack: 3.83 goals a night, Gauthier and Carlsson in form, and a power play that can win a game in three shifts. It fails because the differentials are level, Anaheim defends at 3.67 a night in a building where the Ducks keep losing, and the two units that decide close games late, the penalty kill and the goaltender, both belong to Nashville by a wide margin. Even games should not be priced like clear ones, and the road team owns the edges that matter most here.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.