Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Anaheim scores 3.76 goals per game and allows exactly 3.76, and Leo Carlsson has 26 points running the most entertaining bad defense in the league. Pittsburgh has won once in eight road games, and the Penguins bring that split into a building where Anaheim's own home record says the Ducks should be the vulnerable ones.

The Matchup

Anaheim is 9-7-1, scoring 3.76 goals per game and allowing 3.76, a dead-even 0.00 differential from the most volatile team on the Sunday slate. Leo Carlsson leads the Ducks with 26 points on 6 goals and 20 assists, and Cutter Gauthier has 12 goals. The strange part of Anaheim's page is the split: 7-3-0 on the road and 2-4-1 at home, so the Honda Center has been the one place the Ducks' chaos has cost them. The scoring, at least, shows up everywhere.

Pittsburgh is 5-9-2, scoring 3.13 per game and allowing 3.56 for a -0.44 differential, and the Penguins have gone 2-7-1 over their last ten. Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 16 points on 3 goals and 13 assists from the blue line, and Nick Robertson has 7 goals, team highs that show how thin the forward scoring has become. Pittsburgh is 1-6-1 on the road, and the road version of this team allows goals in the same bunches Anaheim scores them.

Key Factors

Anaheim's power play is the best unit in this game and one of the best anywhere this season. The Ducks convert 36.1 percent with the extra man, and Pittsburgh kills 82.5 percent of its penalties, a respectable kill that still gives up a goal in this matchup most nights.

Pittsburgh converts 17.8 percent against an Anaheim kill of 73.5 percent, so the Penguins get their looks too. The difference is volume: Anaheim scores 3.76 a night at all strengths, and Pittsburgh's forwards, led by a defenseman in scoring, do not have a second line that answers a three-goal night.

Neither crease inspires confidence, and Pittsburgh's inspires less. Arturs Silovs has a 3.26 goals-against average and a .876 save percentage for the Penguins, and Sergei Murashov sits at 3.83 and .871. Lukas Dostal is at 3.76 and .866 for Anaheim, with Ville Husso at 3.55 and .868, so the Ducks are winning shootouts rather than stealing low-scoring games.

Pittsburgh is missing Bryan Rust, who is out today on injured reserve with a lower body injury, and Ryan Graves, who is out on injured reserve with a knee injury. Anaheim lists Troy Terry on injured reserve after hip surgery with a return date of November 8, and Ian Moore on injured reserve with a lower body injury and the same return date, so both are late decisions at best.

The Pittsburgh case is Anaheim's 2-4-1 home record, Dostal's numbers, and a Ducks team that allows as much as it scores. It is a real case, and it fails on Pittsburgh's own road split, which is worse by more: one win in eight, a defense allowing 3.56, and a scoring lead held by a defenseman. Anaheim's chaos cuts both ways at home. Pittsburgh's road form has cut one way all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.