Nashville Predators vs Los Angeles Kings Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Los Angeles has lost five of seven at home and kills penalties at 62.5 percent, and Nashville brings the hottest power play on the Tuesday slate into that building at 29.8 percent. The Kings are favored on home ice their own results keep arguing against, and that tension is the game.

The Matchup

Nashville is 8-4-5, scoring 3.00 goals per game and allowing 2.82, a +0.18 differential. The five overtime losses tell the shape of the Predators' season: they are in every game, and they collect points even on their ordinary nights. Steven Stamkos leads Nashville with 10 goals, Roman Josi has 18 assists, and Filip Forsberg leads the team with 20 points. On the road the Predators are 2-1-3, which means they have lost once in regulation away from home all season.

Los Angeles is 5-8-2, scoring 3.00 per game and allowing 3.47 for a -0.47 differential. Artemi Panarin leads the Kings with 18 points on 8 goals and 10 assists, and he can still take over a period. The building has been the problem: Los Angeles is 2-5-0 at home, where the defensive end has leaked in front of its own crowd. A favorite priced on home ice needs home form behind it, and the Kings' home form is the weakest split in this game.

Key Factors

Special teams decide this one. Nashville converts 29.8 percent on the power play, the best mark on the Tuesday slate, and Los Angeles kills 62.5 percent of its penalties, the worst. Every Kings penalty is close to a one-in-three goal against a power play like Nashville's.

At the other end, Nashville kills 88.5 percent against a Los Angeles power play converting 23.1 percent, so the Kings' own extra-man route runs into the best kill in the game. Both directions of the same battle point the same way, which rarely happens.

Juuse Saros gives Nashville the crease edge as well, at 2.62 and .912, with Justus Annunen at 3.40 and .874 behind him. Darcy Kuemper is at 3.53 and .878 for Los Angeles, and Anton Forsberg is at 2.51 and .902. The Kings are also short-handed in the wrong places: Kevin Fiala is out on injured reserve after lower leg surgery, and Mats Zuccarello is out on injured reserve with an upper body injury.

Nashville lists Jonathan Marchessault as day-to-day with a lower body injury and a return date of November 10. Keep an eye on whether Marchessault plays before placing a bet.

The favorite's case is home ice, Panarin, and a Nashville team that keeps settling for overtime points instead of wins. It fails on everything measurable: Los Angeles allows 3.47 a night, defends home ice at 2-5-0, and owns a 62.5 percent kill walking into the league's hottest power play. Home ice is a reason to price a team shorter. It is not a reason to ignore what the team does there.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.