New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Los Angeles is 2-6-0 at home and allows 3.44 goals per game, and the Islanders arrive with the steadier goaltender and the better penalty kill. Thursday asks whether a Kings team that keeps losing in its own building can hold off a road side built to win close games.

The Matchup

Los Angeles is 5-9-2, scoring 2.81 goals per game and allowing 3.44, a -0.63 differential from a team whose season has gone wrong in its own building: the Kings are 2-6-0 at home. Artemi Panarin leads Los Angeles with 8 goals, 10 assists and 18 points in the Kings' listing, and the attack runs through him because little else has worked consistently. Los Angeles won the first meeting 3-2 in overtime on October 22, and almost nothing since has looked like a team building on it.

The Islanders are 7-6-4, scoring 2.82 per game and allowing 2.94 for a -0.12 differential, and they are 3-3-2 on the road. Bo Horvat leads New York with 7 goals and 17 points, and Matthew Schaefer has 12 assists from the blue line. The Islanders do not overwhelm anyone. They defend their net, kill penalties, and let Ilya Sorokin turn close games into points, which is a reliable way to travel and a hard profile for a struggling home team to break down.

Key Factors

The units that decide close games late both belong to the visitors. The Islanders kill 86.7 percent of their penalties, a strong mark, and convert 15.4 percent on the power play against a Los Angeles kill of just 65.4 percent, the weakest unit in the game.

Los Angeles converts 22.2 percent on its own power play, and that unit runs into the Islanders' kill, so the Kings' best route is the one New York is built to close. Sorokin is at a 2.57 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage in 12 games for the Islanders. Darcy Kuemper is at 3.53 and .878 in 10 games for Los Angeles, and that crease gap has decided Kings games all season.

Availability trims both sides. Drew Doughty is day-to-day with a lower body injury for Los Angeles. Keep an eye on whether Doughty plays before placing a bet. Erik Gustafsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury for the Kings, Kevin Fiala is on injured reserve after lower leg surgery, and Jakub Dvorak is on injured reserve with an upper body injury.

The Islanders are missing Mathew Barzal, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury, Ryan Pulock, who is out with an upper body injury, and Alexander Romanov, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery. Barzal's absence is the honest limit on the road case: without him, the Islanders' thin attack gets thinner, and their margin for a bad period shrinks.

The favorite case is Los Angeles at home, with Panarin's creation and the first meeting's result behind it. It fails because the differentials favor the Islanders, the Kings are 2-6-0 in this building while allowing 3.44 a night, and the two edges that settle tight games, the penalty kill and the goaltender, both belong to New York by a wide margin. A home favorite needs the building or the matchup to lean its way. Los Angeles gets neither.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.