New Mexico Lobos vs Santa Clara Broncos Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
Two unbeaten teams meet at the Leavey Center: New Mexico is 3-0 behind Jake Hall and his 30.7 points a game, and Santa Clara is 4-0 with a deep, balanced rotation. The Lobos lay 2.5 on the road with a total of 164.5.
The Matchup
New Mexico visits Santa Clara on Saturday at 9:00 PM CT at Leavey Center in Santa Clara, California, on ESPN+, with New Mexico a 2.5-point favorite, a total of 164.5, and no moneyline posted. Both teams are unbeaten, neither is ranked, and this is easily the best game of the late window. New Mexico plays in the Mountain West Conference; Santa Clara plays in the West Coast Conference.
New Mexico is 3-0, scoring 96.0 points a game and allowing 64.7 this season, all at home: Utah Tech 100-60, Northern Arizona 94-65 and Little Rock 94-69. Jake Hall has been spectacular, leading the Lobos at 30.7 points a game. Chris Howell leads them at 6.0 assists a game, and Benjamin Schuch leads them at 6.3 rebounds a game. Hall, Howell and Schuch carry no injury designations into this game. New Mexico shoots 51 percent, 40 percent from three, and gives the ball away only 7.3 times a game.
Santa Clara is 4-0, scoring 85.8 points a game and allowing 72.5 this season. The Broncos beat Towson 89-70, Milwaukee 95-72 and Sacramento State 83-77 at home, then won 76-71 at North Texas on Thursday. David Castillo leads a balanced offense at 13.2 points a game, Sash Gavalyugov leads them at 4.2 assists a game, and Chris Tadjo leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game.
Castillo, Gavalyugov and Tadjo carry no injury designations into this game. Last season backs up both starts rather than flattering them: Santa Clara went 26-9, scoring 87.2 a game and allowing 73.9, and New Mexico went 26-11, scoring 80.4 and allowing 71.9. This season's twist is Hall, who has turned the Lobos into a 96-point offense in three home games; Saturday is his first road test.
Key Factors
Hall against a defense by committee is the first factor. Santa Clara has no single scorer to match him, but the Broncos have size, depth and 4.0 blocks a game, and their whole defensive plan can tilt toward making Hall a passer. Howell at 6.0 assists a game is a fine outlet, yet New Mexico's offense changes completely if Hall is creating for others instead of finishing.
The glass and the turnover count are the second factor. Santa Clara averages 41.0 rebounds a game against 39.0 for New Mexico, and Tadjo at 7.0 a game anchors that edge. But the Broncos give the ball away 14.0 times a game, and New Mexico forces 11.3 steals a game while protecting the ball at 7.3 turnovers a game. If the Lobos win the possession battle on the road, the 2.5 points may not matter at all.
The honest counterpoint is that New Mexico has simply looked like the better team: three wins by 25 points or more, a star scoring 30.7 a game, and shooting splits Santa Clara cannot match. Santa Clara's best win came by five at North Texas, and if Hall gets his usual night, the Broncos will need their depth to produce a scorer they have not needed yet.
Jake Hall has been the story of New Mexico's start, and the Lobos deserve real respect on the road. Santa Clara is unbeaten at home, though, deeper across the rotation, and patient enough to make Hall work for every look while its own offense spreads the scoring around. Take Santa Clara Broncos +2.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (11/14) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 9:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | Leavey Center, Santa Clara |
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -2.5 |
| Total | 164.5 |
| Moneyline | OFF |
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