UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Lopes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Grand Canyon is 3-0 and scoring 100.3 points a game, and it lays 31.5 at home. UL Monroe is 1-3, but the Warhawks just scored 92 at TCU and rebound at 44.5 a game, which makes a number this big hard to clear.

The Matchup

UL Monroe visits Grand Canyon on Saturday at 7:00 PM CT at Global Credit Union Arena in Phoenix, Arizona, on MW+, with Grand Canyon a 31.5-point favorite, a total of 164.5, and the Lopes at -100,000 on the moneyline against +5,000 for the Warhawks. Nobody is picking the upset. The argument is only about the size of the win.

Grand Canyon is 3-0 out of the Mountain West Conference, scoring 100.3 points a game and allowing 77.0 this season. The Lopes beat Texas Southern 103-79, Bethune-Cookman 99-81 and Cal Poly 99-71, all at home. Jaden Henley leads them at 17.7 points a game, Tre Holloman leads them at 5.7 assists a game, and Tyler Behrend leads them at 6.3 rebounds a game. Henley, Holloman and Behrend carry no injury designations into this game, and Grand Canyon deals 21.7 assists a game on 51 percent shooting.

UL Monroe is 1-3 out of the Sun Belt Conference, scoring 84.0 points a game and allowing 86.5 this season. The Warhawks lost 83-78 to Central Michigan, beat Champion Christian 99-55, lost 108-67 at Texas A&M, and lost 100-92 in double overtime at TCU on Wednesday. Quaran McPherson leads them at 16.8 points a game, Mike White leads them at 3.2 assists a game, and Lance Carr leads them at 8.0 rebounds a game.

McPherson, White and Carr carry no injury designations into this game. Last season explains the size of this line better than this season does: UL Monroe went 4-28 last season, scoring 71.6 a game and allowing 85.3, while Grand Canyon went 20-12, scoring 75.0 and allowing 67.9. This season's Warhawks, who just put 92 on TCU, have already shown they are not last season's team.

Key Factors

The rebounding is the first factor, and it is the surprise of the matchup. UL Monroe averages 44.5 rebounds a game, more than Grand Canyon at 39.7, and Carr at 8.0 a game gives the Warhawks a genuine presence inside. A heavy underdog that rebounds can shorten the game in the stretches that matter and steal the extra possessions that keep a blowout from becoming a rout.

Pace and shot volume are the second factor. Both teams play fast, the total sits at 164.5, and UL Monroe attempts enough shots to keep scoring even while losing: 84.0 points a game, including 92 at TCU in double overtime. The risk for a favorite laying 31.5 is arithmetic as much as basketball, because the underdog only has to keep trading baskets in a high-possession game.

The honest counterpoint is the Texas A&M game, where UL Monroe lost by 41 and gave up 108. Grand Canyon is at home, deeper, and dealing 21.7 assists a game, and the Warhawks give the ball away 17.0 times a game, which against this crowd and this pressure can turn a manageable deficit into a 20-point hole before halftime. If that happens early, the closing minutes will not save the ticket.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.