New York Islanders vs Minnesota Wild Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Minnesota is 4-0-0 at home behind Kirill Kaprizov's 14 goals, and the Islanders arrive without Mathew Barzal, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury. The Islanders defend well enough to make anyone work for it, and Thursday is a test of whether work alone beats the most productive player on the slate.

The Matchup

Minnesota is 9-3-2, scores 3.14 goals per game and allows 2.21, a +0.93 differential, and the Wild are 4-0-0 at Grand Casino Arena. Kirill Kaprizov is the engine, with a team-high 14 goals and 23 points, and Quinn Hughes has 15 assists from the blue line, so Minnesota's offense starts in two places at once.

The Wild's injury list is real, though: Filip Gustavsson is on injured reserve after hip surgery, Brock Faber is on injured reserve after skull surgery, and Jared Spurgeon is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Keep an eye on whether Spurgeon plays before placing a bet.

The Islanders are 6-4-2, score 2.92 goals per game and allow 2.58, a +0.33 differential built on structure, and Bo Horvat leads them with 13 points and a team-high 6 goals while Matthew Schaefer has 9 assists. What the Islanders do not have is Mathew Barzal, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Alexander Romanov, who is on injured reserve after right knee surgery. Losing Barzal removes the one Islanders forward who creates offense from nothing, and against a team as organized as Minnesota, manufactured offense is most of what the Islanders had.

Key Factors

The crease is closer than the records suggest. Jesper Wallstedt has carried Minnesota at 1.99 and .922 across twelve starts with Gustavsson out, and Ilya Sorokin is at 2.26 and .919 for the Islanders. Sorokin is good enough to keep this 2-1 deep into the third period, and the Islanders' 85.4 percent penalty kill travels well. Minnesota cannot count on blowing this open early.

Where Minnesota separates is the power play. The Wild convert 26.5 percent, and the Islanders convert 15.8 percent against a Minnesota kill of 82.2 percent, so the special-teams trade hands Minnesota the cleaner chances. At even strength, the Islanders will clog the middle and dare Minnesota's depth to beat them, a fair plan until Kaprizov gets a shift against a tired pair.

Minnesota has won with defense all month, allowing 2.21 per game, so the Wild do not need a shootout. They need one Kaprizov moment and sixty minutes of their normal structure, and at home they have delivered both every time.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.