New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

San Jose scores 2.47 goals per game and Macklin Celebrini has a hand in most of them, with 21 points through nineteen games. The Islanders bring Ilya Sorokin and his .910 save percentage into the SAP Center, but they also bring an injury list that has taken Mathew Barzal and two regular defensemen out of the lineup.

The Matchup

The Islanders are 7-6-3, scoring 2.88 goals per game and allowing 3.00, a -0.13 differential from a team that lives in one-goal games. Bo Horvat leads New York with 16 points on 7 goals and 9 assists, and Matthew Schaefer has 11 assists from the blue line. The road split is even, at 3-3-1, which fits the team: the Islanders rarely look great anywhere and rarely look beaten anywhere, and most of their games are decided by which goaltender has the cleaner night.

San Jose is 7-11-1, scoring 2.47 per game and allowing 3.58 for a -1.11 differential. Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks with 21 points on 7 goals and 14 assists, and the gap between Celebrini and the rest of the Sharks' scoring is the problem in one line: San Jose's best player creates, and too few teammates finish. The Sharks are 3-5-0 at home, and a 2.47-goal attack gives their goaltenders almost no room on the nights the defense leaks.

Key Factors

Ilya Sorokin is the largest single edge in this game. He has a 2.64 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage for the Islanders, with Semyon Varlamov at 2.72 and .892 behind him. Yaroslav Askarov is at 3.35 and .885 for San Jose, and Alex Nedeljkovic is at 3.23 and .895. Against a Sharks team scoring 2.47 a night, Sorokin turns the Islanders' thin margin for error into a workable one, because San Jose has to earn its goals in twos and threes against the best net in the game.

San Jose's best route is its power play, which converts 21.4 percent, and the Islanders kill 85.7 percent of their penalties, so that route is covered by the one unit built to stop it. New York converts only 14.6 percent on its power play against a San Jose kill of 76.5 percent, which keeps the Islanders honest: they will have to win this at even strength. The Islanders are missing real pieces while they do it.

Mathew Barzal is out tonight on injured reserve with a knee injury and a return date of November 14. Ryan Pulock is out with an upper body injury, and Alexander Romanov is out on injured reserve after right knee surgery. San Jose lists Alexander Wennberg on injured reserve with an upper body injury and a return date of November 9, with Igor Chernyshov also on injured reserve with an upper body injury.

The San Jose case is Celebrini, home ice, and an Islanders lineup missing Barzal, Pulock, and Romanov, and on a different night against a different goaltender it would be enough. It fails on arithmetic: the Sharks score 2.47 a night, allow 3.58, and now have to beat Sorokin to win. The Islanders are not deep enough to run away with this game. They are deep enough to win the low-scoring one San Jose keeps playing.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.