New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Jack Hughes has 21 points for an 11-5-0 New Jersey team that has won eight of its last ten, and Ilya Sorokin waits at the other end with a .911 save percentage. The Islanders defend their building honestly, but they score 2.80 goals per game, and that is the problem Sorokin has to solve by himself.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 11-5-0, scoring 3.50 goals per game and allowing 2.94, a +0.56 differential that is the best in this game by more than half a goal. Jack Hughes leads the Devils with 8 goals, 13 assists, and 21 points. New Jersey has won eight of its last ten, and the Devils have done it while allowing 2.94 a night, a defensive line that travels better than most contenders manage.

The Islanders are 7-6-2, scoring 2.80 per game and allowing 2.87 for a -0.07 differential. Bo Horvat has 7 goals and Matthew Schaefer has 15 points from the blue line. The Islanders are 4-3-1 at home and 5-3-2 over their last ten, a respectable home profile built almost entirely on goaltending and patience. Patience is a hard way to play a team that scores 3.50 a night.

Key Factors

Ilya Sorokin is the Islanders' whole case, and he is a good one. Sorokin has a 2.41 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage, the best goaltending line in this game, and the Islanders kill 86.5 percent of their penalties. If Sorokin stands up to Hughes and the Devils' first wave for sixty minutes, the Islanders can steal this the way they steal most of their home wins.

The absences say he has to do it with a thinned group in front of him. Mathew Barzal is out tonight with a knee injury. Ryan Pulock is out with an upper body injury, and Alexander Romanov is out with an ACL injury, so the Islanders are missing their most creative forward and two defensemen at once.

New Jersey lists Seamus Casey out with a knee injury, a far shorter bill. The Devils' one soft spot is a penalty kill at 67.6 percent, but the Islanders convert only 14.6 percent on the power play, so the weakness meets the opponent least built to punish it.

The Islanders case, Sorokin plus the kill plus home ice, fails on arithmetic. A team scoring 2.80 a night, missing Barzal, has to hold an 11-5-0 team scoring 3.50 to one or two goals, and New Jersey has won eight of ten playing exactly this kind of game. Sorokin keeps it close. Close is not the pick.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.