New York Rangers vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

Edmonton scores 4.11 goals per game with Connor McDavid already on 47 points, and the Rangers arrive without Igor Shesterkin, who is out after knee surgery. New York has won twice in eight road games, and Rogers Place asks its backup goaltending a question it has not had to answer against a power play like this one.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 12-3-3, scoring 4.11 goals per game and allowing 2.94, a +1.17 differential built by the most productive top end on the Monday slate. Connor McDavid leads the Oilers with 47 points on 10 goals and 37 assists, and Leon Draisaitl has 16 goals, eight of them on the power play. The form is not a home trick, either: Edmonton is 5-3-2 at Rogers Place and 7-0-1 on the road, so the Oilers have banked points in every building they have visited.

New York is 10-7-1, scoring 3.06 per game and allowing 2.89 for a +0.17 differential, and the Rangers are really two teams. At home they are 8-2-0. On the road they are 2-5-1, and the road version defends and finishes a clear step below the one that plays at Madison Square Garden. Adam Fox leads New York with 22 points on 2 goals and 20 assists from the blue line, and Alexis Lafreniere has 9 goals, solid production that still leaves the Rangers leaning on a defenseman to run their offense.

Key Factors

The special teams collision runs in both directions, which is what makes the game interesting. Edmonton converts 33.8 percent on the power play, and New York kills 89.1 percent of its penalties, the stingiest kill Edmonton has faced this season.

If the Rangers stay out of the box and kill what they take, the Oilers lose their easiest goals. The other end is less balanced: New York converts 20.8 percent against an Edmonton kill of 75.0 percent, so the Rangers have a real route back into any game the whistles open up.

The crease is where the Rangers' problem sits. Igor Shesterkin is out tonight. He is on long-term injured reserve after right knee surgery, with a return date of September 15, 2027. Dylan Garand has carried the net well in his place, with a 2.52 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage in 13 games, and Joonas Korpisalo sits at 3.04 and .893 in one game behind him.

Edmonton counters with Tristan Jarry at 2.57 and .902 with two shutouts, and Devon Levi at 2.97 and .889, who has won seven of his eight games. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is day-to-day for Edmonton with a head injury and a return date of November 9. Keep an eye on whether Nugent-Hopkins plays before placing a bet. Colton Dach is day-to-day with an illness for Edmonton, and Alberts Smits is day-to-day with an upper body injury for New York.

The New York case is Fox, the 89.1 percent kill, and Garand, whose numbers say the drop from Shesterkin has been smaller than anyone expected. It fails on the split that has followed the Rangers all season: two wins in eight road games, against a home team scoring 4.11 a night that gets the last change and the deeper bench. New York needs a low-event game in a building where Edmonton rarely plays one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.