Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Connor McDavid has 48 points, Leon Draisaitl has 18 goals, and Edmonton scores 4.05 goals per game, the highest mark on the Wednesday slate. Philadelphia scores 2.25 a night, the lowest, and the Flyers walk into Rogers Place asked to keep the league's best attack within one goal.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 13-3-3, scoring 4.05 goals per game and allowing 2.84, a +1.21 differential that is the best on the Wednesday slate by a wide margin. Connor McDavid leads the Oilers with 48 points on 37 assists, and Leon Draisaitl has 18 goals, and that pairing is the hardest matchup problem in hockey right now: McDavid creates the chances and Draisaitl finishes them, often on the same shift. Edmonton has not lost a road game in regulation all season, going 7-0-1 away, and the Oilers are 6-3-2 at Rogers Place, where the attack gets the last change and the matchups it wants.

Philadelphia is 5-10-5, scoring 2.25 per game and allowing 3.25 for a -1.00 differential, and the Flyers' record flatters them a little: five overtime losses mean a lot of close defeats, not a lot of wins. Matvei Michkov leads Philadelphia with 10 goals and 14 points, and Trevor Zegras has 10 assists, and after that pair the scoring falls off fast. A team that scores 2.25 a night has almost no margin for a bad period, and Edmonton is the team most likely to hand out a bad period.

Key Factors

This pick is about the margin, so the margin evidence comes first. The gap between these teams is more than two goals a game in the season numbers, and the shape of it matters more than the size.

Philadelphia cannot chase: a 2.25-goal attack that falls behind by one has to open up, and opening up against McDavid and Draisaitl in transition is how one goal becomes two, with an empty net waiting at the end of a game the Flyers have to gamble on. Edmonton does not need a blowout period. The Oilers need their normal game, one push in the second and a Flyers team forced to take risks late.

Special teams widen the gap further. Edmonton converts 32.4 percent on the power play, an elite mark, and Philadelphia kills 80.6 percent of its penalties, which is respectable and still not enough against that unit over a full night. Philadelphia converts 18.3 percent against an Edmonton kill of 77.0 percent, so the Flyers' route with the extra man is narrower than the Oilers' route.

In net, Devon Levi is at a 2.75 goals-against average and a .898 save percentage in nine games for Edmonton, with Tristan Jarry at 2.57 and .902 behind him. Dan Vladar is at 3.27 and .880 for Philadelphia. Philadelphia lists Rasmus Ristolainen on injured reserve with a hand injury, and Edmonton is missing Isaac Howard, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie, all on injured reserve, which thins the Oilers' depth without touching the top of the lineup that decides this game.

The Philadelphia case is the overtime losses: the Flyers play close games, and a puck line asks Edmonton to win by two, not just to win. It fails on the scoring arithmetic. A team scoring 2.25 a night, on the road, against a 4.05-goal attack with the league's hottest power play, has to play its best defensive game of the season and get the goaltending to match. That is a lot of things to need at once.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.