Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Connor McDavid has 44 points in 17 games and Vancouver allows 4.61 goals per game, the worst defensive number in the league this season. Edmonton's power play converts 33.9 percent of its chances, and the Canucks bring the kill and the goaltending least built to survive it.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 11-3-3, scoring 4.12 goals per game and allowing 3.00, a +1.12 differential powered by the two most productive forwards in this game. Connor McDavid has 44 points on 10 goals and 34 assists, and Leon Draisaitl has 14 goals. The Oilers have gone 6-2-2 over their last ten, and their power play has turned close games into runaways all season.

Vancouver is 3-14-1, scoring 2.94 per game and allowing 4.61 for a -1.67 differential, the worst mark in this game and one of the worst in the league. Elias Pettersson leads the Canucks with 18 points and Brock Boeser has 6 goals. Vancouver has gone 1-8-1 over its last ten, allowing 4.3 goals per game in that stretch. There is no version of this matchup where the Canucks' defensive numbers are a slump. They are the team.

Key Factors

The two-goal case is the power play, stated plainly. Edmonton converts 33.9 percent with the extra man. Vancouver kills 63.3 percent of its penalties. Every Canucks penalty is close to a goal against, and a team allowing 4.61 a night takes penalties because it is chasing the game.

Kevin Lankinen has a 6.03 goals-against average and a .808 save percentage for Vancouver, and Leevi Merilainen sits at 3.56 and .889, so neither Canucks goaltender has stopped a slide all season. Thatcher Demko is out for Vancouver with a hip injury, and Filip Chytil is out with an upper body injury.

Edmonton's own kill, at 74.1 percent, is the one soft spot, and Vancouver converts 21.4 percent on the power play. It is not enough to change the margin math against a team scoring 4.12 a night. Tristan Jarry is day-to-day for Edmonton with an illness. Keep an eye on whether Jarry plays before placing a bet. Zach Hyman is listed at a return date of November 7 for the Oilers, and Isaac Howard is out with a lower body injury.

The Vancouver case is a rivalry game, Pettersson, and the hope that Edmonton coasts at -340. It fails because coasting is not what this Oilers team does to a rival allowing 4.61 a night, and because the margin has a built-in engine: power play goals early, a chasing team late, and an empty net at the end of it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.