Northern Illinois Huskies vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Tulsa won 30 games last season and just made 19 threes in its opener, while Northern Illinois allowed 89 points on 64 percent shooting in its own opener.

The Matchup

Northern Illinois visits Tulsa on Thursday night at the Reynolds Center, with Tulsa a 15.5-point favorite, a total of 152.5, on ESPN+. Tulsa finished 30-8 last season, scoring 83.6 points a game and allowing 72.8. Northern Illinois finished 9-21, scoring 64.4 and allowing 77.4. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Tulsa's opener came against Ottawa (KS), a non-Division I opponent, so the 98-50 score deserves a discount. Still, the shape of it is striking: Tulsa made 19 three-pointers, forced 20 steals, and spread the scoring across nine players with at least 7 points. Jaylen Lawal led with 17, Denton Forsythe scored 12 with 6 steals, and Kobi Williams added 12.

Northern Illinois played the tougher opener and nearly won it, losing 89-87 at Grambling. Trevor Polite scored 15 on 5-of-6 shooting, Max Weisbrod scored 11 with 8 assists against just 1 turnover, and the Huskies made 14 threes while committing only 8 turnovers. The other side of that box score is the problem: Grambling shot 32-of-50 from the field.

Key Factors

Tulsa's depth is the engine of this spread. No Golden Hurricane player played more than 20 minutes in the opener, and the scoring kept coming anyway, which means the second unit does not let a lead shrink the way tired starters do. Against a Northern Illinois defense that just allowed 64 percent shooting, Tulsa does not need its opener's numbers to be real. It needs its shooters to make an ordinary share of open looks.

Northern Illinois' cover path is its own offense, which was genuinely good at Grambling. The Huskies took care of the ball, made 14 threes, and had five players score between 11 and 15 points. A team that protects the ball and shoots it from deep can hang around against a favorite that is still sorting out its rotation after a soft opener.

The counterpoint is that Tulsa's opener, for all its softness, showed a defense that forced 22 turnovers, while Northern Illinois' opener showed a defense that could not stop anyone. If Tulsa's pressure travels at all, the Huskies' clean offense disappears, and a 15.5-point gap closes fast when the underdog cannot get stops. Tulsa should win, and the defense is why it should win by more than the number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.