Grambling Tigers vs Northern Illinois Huskies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

The strangest tip time of opening day, 2 a.m. Central in Rock Hill, pairs a Grambling team that played its opponents almost even last season with a Northern Illinois team starting over under a first-year coach and an entirely new roster.

The Matchup

Northern Illinois is a 5.5-point favorite over Grambling at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in South Carolina, with a total of 147.5 and the Huskies at -238 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor, a season opener for both teams, and the second game of the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon, which is why it tips at 2 a.m. Central on YouTube.

Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. Grambling finished 14-19, scoring 70.3 points per game and allowing 70.1. Northern Illinois finished 9-21, scoring 69.5 and allowing 77.8. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Northern Illinois is the bigger reset. Head coach Matt Majkrzak coaches his first game in charge, and not one player is back from last season's roster. He brought four players with him from Northern Michigan, where he coached before this job, and the Huskies won both of their exhibitions, beating Northern Michigan 78-43 and Toledo 79-66. A group that has never played a game together looked organized in October. The question is what that is worth in the first game that counts, at this hour.

Grambling's change is quieter. Forward Mekhi Fitts is back after averaging 5.3 points and 3.3 rebounds in the rotation last season, and the Tigers added real size in 7-foot-2 senior Isaiah Miranda, a former top-50 recruit who has had stops at NC State, Oklahoma State, Green Bay and Long Island.

Miranda averaged 3.7 points per game at Long Island last season and blocked just under a shot a game. Those are modest numbers for a player with his recruiting pedigree, but Grambling does not need him to be a star. It needs him to make a brand-new Northern Illinois frontcourt finish over length.

Key Factors

Grambling played the year almost exactly even, outscoring its opponents by 0.2 points per game. Northern Illinois was outscored by 8.3 points per game and allowed 77.8 a night, the leakiest defense in this matchup by a wide margin. A favorite with a new coach and a new roster usually gets the benefit of the doubt in an opener. Here the doubt belongs to the favorite, because the team laying points has no returning production at all and a defense that has never played a real game together.

The scoring environment cuts the other way. Grambling's games averaged 140.4 points last season and Northern Illinois' averaged 147.3, and the total sits at 147.5, right at the Huskies' end of that range. A faster, looser game helps the team with the cleaner October, and Northern Illinois has it: two comfortable exhibition wins with a rotation that already knows its coach's system from Northern Michigan. If this turns into a track meet, the Huskies' head start in cohesion is a real edge.

The honest counterpoint is Grambling's own turnover. Fitts is one of very few Tigers who played real minutes for this program last season, and most of the rotation around him is new too, so the steadiness argument only goes so far. If Majkrzak's group defends the way it did in the exhibitions, and Toledo was a genuine opponent, 5.5 points is a small number to cover. The lean is that a first game, at this hour, with this much new on the favorite's side, rarely goes that smoothly.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.