Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Oklahoma State, No. 24 in the AP Top 25, brings the most explosive passing game on this slate to Ames after scoring 57 points last week. Iowa State returns home beaten 39-3, with only its ground game to slow the tempo down.

The Matchup

Drew Mestemaker makes Oklahoma State hard to contain for long. Mestemaker has thrown for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, and Mestemaker went 21 of 36 for 386 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions in his most recent game. Oklahoma State averages 341.0 passing yards per game at 9.7 yards per attempt and scores 40.0 points per game.

Caleb Hawkins keeps defenses honest behind that passing. Hawkins has 712 rushing yards this season, and Hawkins carried 19 times for 120 yards at 6.3 yards per carry in the most recent game. Iowa State cannot match that firepower throw for throw. Iowa State averages only 176.9 passing yards per game and scores 25.9 points per game.

Aiden Flora is how Iowa State changes the terms. Flora has 716 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on 102 carries this season, and Iowa State runs for 163.0 yards per game as a team. If Flora keeps Iowa State ahead of the chains at Jack Trice Stadium, Mestemaker spends long stretches watching instead of throwing, and a 10-point spread becomes hard to clear.

Key Factors

Iowa State's problem is third down, where Iowa State converts only 29.4 percent. Flora runs do not help if Iowa State cannot finish drives, and Jaylen Raynor offered little last time out beyond efficiency in a small outing, going 8 of 10 for 106 yards while Iowa State lost 39-3 at Arizona. Oklahoma State also takes better care of scoring chances through the air, with 21 passing touchdowns against 9 for Iowa State.

Iowa State's defense has to do the heavy work. Iowa State allows 24.1 points per game, close to the 23.7 points per game Oklahoma State allows, and Iowa State has 10 takeaways this season. A defense that holds near its season average keeps Flora's clock control relevant into the fourth quarter.

What beats Iowa State here is an early Mestemaker burst. If Mestemaker repeats anything near 386 yards and 4 touchdowns and Oklahoma State leads by two scores early, Flora's carries lose their value and Raynor has to throw into the game Iowa State cannot win. Iowa State needs a close first half more than Iowa State needs a big play.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.