App State vs Georgia Southern Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
App State brings a 5-2 record and back-to-back close wins into Statesboro, where Georgia Southern has had 15 days to prepare. The home rest is real, and so is the quarterback edge traveling with the visitors.
The Matchup
Malachi Singleton controls this game when Singleton protects the ball. Singleton has thrown for 1,700 yards and 9 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions this season, and Singleton went 26 of 40 for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in App State's most recent game. App State completes 67.1 percent of its passes and averages 270.1 passing yards per game, so Singleton does not need hero throws to move the offense.
Jaquari Lewis gives Singleton balance. Lewis has 420 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns this season, and Lewis carried 13 times for 74 yards at 5.7 yards per carry in the most recent game. Georgia Southern throws for even more yardage at 275.4 yards per game, but Georgia Southern scores only 24.4 points per game against App State's 30.1 points per game.
Alex Taylor is the target App State has to find. Taylor caught 7 passes for 75 yards in Georgia Southern's most recent game and has 342 yards this season. App State allows 23.1 points per game and has taken 10 interceptions, a defense built to punish a passing team that has to throw to keep up.
Key Factors
Georgia Southern's pass rush is the clearest path for the home team. Georgia Southern has 19 sacks this season, and App State has only 9 sacks. Pressure that moves Singleton off his spot would break the rhythm that produced 271 yards last time out, and Georgia Southern also has 15 days of rest against 8 days for App State.
That rest matters for a defense that allows 23.0 points per game and has 11 takeaways. App State's counter is finishing. App State beat Coastal Carolina 35-32 and James Madison 34-31 in its last two games, close results that show Lewis and Singleton closing drives late. Lewis has 8 rushing touchdowns, more than half of App State's 14 rushing touchdowns as a team in scoring weight near the goal line.
What beats App State here is Georgia Southern turning pressure into short fields. If Georgia Southern's 19-sack rush forces Singleton into the rare mistake - Singleton has only 2 interceptions all season - and Taylor converts those chances, the home team can win by a touchdown. Without those takeaways, App State's scoring edge keeps this inside one score.
Editorial pick: App State +5.5. Singleton has 9 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, Lewis has 8 rushing touchdowns, and App State scores 30.1 points per game against Georgia Southern's 24.4, which is a lot for a 5.5-point underdog to carry. Georgia Southern needs its pass rush to create turnovers App State rarely gives away. Take App State +5.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 6:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPN+ |
| VENUE | Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro |
| SPREAD | Georgia Southern -5.5 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Georgia Southern -205 |
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