Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

USC is ranked No. 21 and lays 26.5 at home, but last season's Trojans outscored their opponents by less than a point a game, and their two best guards never shared the court. Milwaukee's 12-20 came in a season wrecked by injuries to three projected starters. The gap between these teams on last season's evidence is a few points, not 26.5.

The Matchup

USC is a 26.5-point favorite over Milwaukee at the Galen Center in Los Angeles on Monday night, with a total of 156.5, streaming on B1G+. It is the season opener for both teams. USC finished 18-14 last season, scoring 78.6 points per game and allowing 77.9. Milwaukee finished 12-20, scoring 76.3 and allowing 79.6. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

USC's season is the stranger story. The Trojans started 18-6, then lost eight straight to finish 18-14 and miss the tournament. Their two best guards were never on the court together: Rodney Rice averaged 20.3 points and 6.0 assists in six games before shoulder surgery ended his season, and Alijah Arenas missed the first 18 games after a car accident and a torn meniscus, then averaged 14.1 points in 14 games.

Both are healthy now, and they led USC in scoring in all three exhibitions, Rice averaging 23.7 points and Arenas 20.3. Around them, though, almost everything is new: three returners, seven transfers and four freshmen.

Milwaukee's 12-20 came with the same kind of asterisk. Three projected starters suffered season-ending injuries, including John Lovelace Jr., who broke his leg in practice before the season, and the Panthers' best player, Jovanovich, averaged 12.4 points and 6.1 rebounds before his own season ended in January.

Both are back, and Milwaukee warmed up by beating Luther 96-40 in its exhibition. USC's exhibitions were all on the road: a loss at North Carolina, a six-point win at UC San Diego that was tied with five minutes left, and a convincing 85-68 win at San Diego State.

Key Factors

The only full-season evidence puts the gap at about 4 points. USC outscored its opponents by 0.7 points a night last season and Milwaukee was outscored by 3.3, and home court stretches that gap only so far. The spread asks for 26.5. Last season's USC numbers come with a warning label, since Rice and Arenas barely played, but a number this size is not a read on these teams. It is a price on a ranking, a recruiting class and a brand.

Milwaukee's late-season form is the part of the underdog's case the full-season line hides. Chandler Jackson averaged 16.1 points a game from February 1 through the end of last season, well above his 9.7 for the full year, and he and Jovanovich are both preseason all-conference picks in the Horizon League, which picked the Panthers sixth.

Milwaukee's exhibition was a 56-point win. None of that makes the Panthers good. It makes them a healthier, more settled team than the one that went 12-20, facing a favorite still introducing ten new players to each other.

The counterpoint is real, and it is the healthy version of USC's backcourt. Rice and Arenas were the Trojans' two best players all October, USC won at San Diego State by 17 without trailing, and Eric Musselman is 10-1 in season openers, 2-0 at USC.

Milwaukee also allowed 79.6 points a game last season, and if USC's guards get downhill early, the Panthers do not have the defense to stop a rout from building. This pick is not a claim that Milwaukee is nearly as good as USC. It is a claim that 26.5 points is too many to lay with any team playing its first game that counts together.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.