Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

FC Dallas, second in the West, open a best-of-three Round One series at Toyota Stadium against the Portland Timbers, seventh in the West and winners of four straight to close the regular season.

The Matchup

The MLS Cup Playoffs open a best-of-three Round One series at Toyota Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and the two sides arrive from opposite ends of the Western Conference table. FC Dallas finished second in the West at 16-10-8 with 58 points.

The Portland Timbers finished seventh at 13-7-14 with 46 points, and they had to sprint to get here, winning their last four matches of the regular season to lock up the spot. Game 1 is the game Dallas cannot give away, because the higher seed's whole edge in this format starts with holding home field.

The season numbers say the gap between these clubs lives at one end of the field. Both sides scored 62 goals. Dallas conceded 51, Portland conceded 61, and the split that matters is where this game is played. Dallas went 9-5-3 at home, scoring 32 goals and conceding 23.

Portland went 4-3-10 on the road, conceding 33 goals in 17 trips, and a visiting defense that gives up nearly two goals a game is walking into the wrong building. Petar Musa leads the home attack with 22 goals in 30 matches on 102 shots, Logan Farrington adds 10 goals, and Joaquín Valiente, who leads the side with 13 assists, scored the equalizer that started the comeback win over Colorado in the finale.

Portland's case is momentum, and it is not a small one. The Timbers have won four straight, beating Charlotte FC 3-2, winning 3-2 at St. Louis CITY SC, beating Houston Dynamo FC 3-1 and winning 2-0 at Austin FC, scoring 11 goals across their last five matches. Kristoffer Velde has 12 goals and 9 assists this season on a team-high 107 shots, and he has scored four times in the last four matches.

Ariel Lassiter has 8 goals and scored three times in the last five, David Da Costa adds 7 goals and 9 assists, and James Pantemis has made 128 saves behind a defense that asks plenty of him. Portland also took a point off Dallas this season, drawing 2-2 at home in July before losing 2-1 in Frisco in September.

Neither club has named its side yet. Dallas are expected to keep the team that beat Colorado, Daniel in goal behind Osaze Urhoghide, Shaq Moore and Sebastien Ibeagha, with Kaick, who scored one goal and made another in that finale, and Valiente expected to start in midfield and Musa leading the line, and Farrington expected to feature after setting up the late winner against Colorado. Portland are expected to stay with the eleven that started their last two matches, Pantemis in goal, Finn Surman anchoring the back line, and Velde, Vincent Janssen and Lassiter expected to start across the front, with Cole Bassett, who has 7 assists, expected to feature.

Key Factors

Dallas do their best work late, and that habit is built for a playoff opener. Seven of the nine goals Dallas scored across their last five matches arrived in the 75th minute or later.

They drew 2-2 at Houston Dynamo FC on a stoppage-time penalty, scored all three of their goals after the 81st minute in the 3-0 win over San Jose Earthquakes, and came from behind in the finale to beat Colorado Rapids 3-1 with goals at 75, 88 and 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A side that keeps scoring at the end of games asks a tiring road defense the hardest question last, and Portland's road defense, 33 goals conceded in 17 away matches, has given the wrong answer often this season.

The honest counterpoint is that Portland are the form side in this tie, and it is not close. Four straight wins, a settled eleven that has started together twice running, and a front line where Velde is scoring every week and Lassiter is finishing his chances make the Timbers a live underdog in a way their seventh-place finish does not suggest.

Dallas also dropped a home game in this same run, losing 2-0 to Columbus Crew, and their two draws in the last five say the control is not always there. If Portland score first and make Dallas chase the game, the home crowd's edge shrinks fast and the advantage Dallas carried into this series goes with it.

What settles it is where the chances should come from. Dallas create at home behind Musa's movement and Valiente's passing, and Portland's away games have been open all season, with goals at both ends and a defense that bends on the road. Both clubs have had two weeks since the finale on November 7, so tired legs are no excuse either way. Dallas need their home scoring, not their late habit, to carry the night, because Portland are good enough right now to punish a slow start.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.