Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday

Chicago scores 2.20 goals per game, the weakest attack on the Wednesday slate, and allows 3.87, and the Blackhawks walk into a Florida team that defends at 2.93 per game in its own building. The gap between these teams shows up almost everywhere the numbers are kept.

The Matchup

Florida is 8-5-2 with a plus-0.20 differential per game, scoring 3.13 and allowing 2.93, and the Panthers win the way they usually win, by making the other team work for every clean look. Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida with 17 assists and 21 points, and Brady Tkachuk has 8 goals, so the Panthers get offense from the brothers in two different ways, one dealing from below the goal line and one finishing in front of the net.

Chicago is 4-10-1, and the Blackhawks are getting buried at both ends. Chicago scores just 2.20 goals per game and allows 3.87, a -1.67 differential that is the worst on the Wednesday slate.

Connor Bedard leads the Blackhawks with 10 points and Roman Kantserov has 6 goals, but the support falls off fast after them, and a one-line team is easy for Florida to plan against. Spencer Knight has worked hard in net at a 3.28 goals-against average and a .894 save percentage, and those numbers say more about the chances Chicago gives up than about Knight himself.

Chicago also arrives shorthanded at the top of its lineup. Patrick Kane is out Wednesday night, and Kane still leads the Blackhawks in assists, so the one veteran who could slow the game down and find Bedard in space is missing. Florida has its own absences, with Brad Marchand on injured reserve and Aleksander Barkov also on injured reserve, and that is the honest reason this is not a bigger number. The Panthers still defend their net far better than Chicago defends its own, even without Barkov.

Key Factors

The margin case starts with Chicago's chase problem. A team scoring 2.20 per game that falls behind by one has to open up, and opening up against Florida means feeding the Tkachuks in transition and in front of the net. The Blackhawks have allowed 3.87 per game playing their normal structure, so the extra risk Florida forces should show up as a second and third goal, not just a tighter finish. That is how a favorite covers a puck line in this matchup, by making the trailing team play a game it is not built to play.

Special teams widen it further. Florida converts 23.5 percent on the power play and kills 83.9 percent of its penalties. Chicago converts just 10.6 percent, the weakest power play in this game by a mile, and kills 79.6 percent, so the Blackhawks cannot steal the game on special teams even if they draw the calls.

The underdog case is that Florida is missing Barkov and Marchand, and Chicago can keep it close if Knight steals long stretches. It asks a 4-10-1 team that scores the least on the slate to hang around on the road against the better defensive team, and that is a lot to ask for one night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.