SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Ole Miss has opened 2-0 while allowing just 59.0 points a game, and SE Louisiana already has a 33-point loss at Auburn on its ledger. The Lions did beat Little Rock, though, and their slow, low-scoring style is built to shrink games exactly like this one.

The Matchup

SE Louisiana visits Ole Miss on Tuesday night at the Sandy and John Black Pavilion in Oxford, on SECN+, with Ole Miss a 25.5-point favorite, a total of 147.5, and the Rebels priced at -9,000 on the moneyline against the Lions at +2,500. It is an SEC home favorite against a Southland visitor that plays at a crawl.

Ole Miss is 2-0, with wins over Alcorn State (99-58) and Central Arkansas (92-60). The Rebels have scored 95.5 points a game and allowed just 59.0. Patton Pinkins leads them at 17.5 points a game, Adam Clark leads them at 6.5 assists a game, and Santiago Trouet leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game. Two buy games can flatter anyone, and last season's Rebels were a different animal: 75.9 points scored and 76.1 allowed across 35 games in the Southeastern Conference, a team that lived in close games.

SE Louisiana is 1-1. The Lions lost 92-59 at Auburn and won 83-79 at Little Rock. They have scored 71.0 points a game and allowed 85.5, numbers bent by the Auburn trip. Jackson Furman leads them at 13.0 points a game, Tyler Rolison leads them at 5.0 assists a game, and Garrett Shoemaker leads them at 5.5 rebounds a game.

Last season the Lions scored just 65.0 a game and allowed 70.5 across 31 games, one of the slower, lower-scoring teams in the Southland. No player on either side carries an injury designation in the ESPN report for this game.

Key Factors

Pace is the Lions' whole case. A team that scored 65.0 points a game last season shortens every game it plays, and fewer possessions means a favorite needs a higher scoring rate to build a margin in the high twenties. Rolison's 5.0 assists a game tell you the Lions' offense is organized rather than frantic, and organized underdogs waste fewer possessions than overmatched ones usually do.

Ole Miss's defense is the counterargument, and it has been genuinely good: 59.0 points allowed a game, with neither Alcorn State nor Central Arkansas reaching 60. If Clark's ball pressure turns Rolison over and the Rebels run off live-ball turnovers, the margin builds in transition, where SE Louisiana cannot set its defense or its tempo.

The honest counterpoint is the Auburn game. SE Louisiana has already lost by 33 to an SEC team this month, and Ole Miss at home is a similar weight class. If the Lions' deliberate style simply produces long, empty possessions against a better defense, the Rebels do not need pace to pull away; they need only ordinary efficiency over 40 minutes. The Lions' 85.5 points allowed a game says their own defense has not traveled yet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.