SMU vs Syracuse Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

SMU is No. 19 in the AP Top 25 at 6-1 and has scored 36.4 points per game, and Syracuse gets the Mustangs inside the JMA Wireless Dome at 3-4. Syracuse just won 31-30 at North Carolina, and the Orange passing game is the reason this spread will be tested.

The Matchup

Kevin Jennings makes SMU the favorite for a clear reason. Jennings has thrown for 2,062 yards with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and Jennings went 16 of 23 for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns in the most recent game. Kendrick Raphael added 22 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game, and Raphael has 641 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season.

SMU averages 313.1 passing yards per game at 9.4 yards per attempt. Syracuse answers with a different kind of explosiveness. Steve Angeli went 20 of 34 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in the most recent game, and Umari Hatcher caught 4 passes for 103 yards and 1 touchdown, with a long of 76. Hatcher has 54 catches for 887 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, production that punishes single coverage.

Ahmad Miller carried 30 times for 125 yards and 1 touchdown in that same game, giving Syracuse enough balance to keep SMU from teeing off. Syracuse averages 31.6 points per game, so the Orange do not need a defensive shutout in the Dome. Syracuse needs Hatcher to flip the field twice and Miller to keep drives alive.

Key Factors

Turnovers decide whether Syracuse stays within one score or SMU pulls away. Syracuse has 10 giveaways this season and Angeli's quarterbacks room shows 9 interceptions thrown in the team summary, while SMU has 11 takeaways. Syracuse cannot give Jennings extra possessions at home and expect the Dome crowd to matter in the fourth quarter. The home side does have a path on the ground and on defense.

Syracuse has 13 takeaways, and SMU has 9 giveaways, so the Orange secondary will get chances if Jennings forces throws downfield. The counterpoint is SMU's efficiency. Jennings completes passes at a rate that supports SMU's 73.3 percent team completion mark, and Raphael at 4.7 yards per carry in the most recent game keeps SMU ahead of the chains.

If SMU leads by two touchdowns at halftime, Syracuse throwing to catch up plays into pressure. If Syracuse keeps the margin at one score into the second half, Hatcher's big play rate changes the math, because one 76 yard strike is worth more than a long methodical drive against a team allowing 21.1 points per game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.