South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Northern Colorado Bears Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Northern Colorado is shooting 55 percent as a team and scoring 94.0 points a game. South Dakota State is 3-0 on defense and discipline, and the two styles meet on a neutral floor in Rapid City.

The Matchup

South Dakota State meets Northern Colorado on Saturday at 3:00 PM CT at The Monument in Rapid City, South Dakota, on Midco Sports Plus, with South Dakota State a 4.5-point favorite, a total of 151.5, and South Dakota State priced at -175 on the moneyline against Northern Colorado at +145. The game is played on a neutral floor in Rapid City, so the home designation on the schedule means less than the styles the two teams bring into the building.

Northern Colorado is 2-1 out of the Big Sky Conference, scoring 94.0 points a game and allowing 68.7 this season, and the offense has been the story: the Bears shoot 55 percent as a team and 45 percent from three. Last season's Northern Colorado team went 20-12, scoring 82.5 a game and allowing 76.5, so scoring in bunches is the program's identity, not a one-week accident.

Manning Shareef leads Northern Colorado at 11.3 points a game, Langston Reynolds leads the Bears at 5.7 assists a game, and Andrew Crawford leads them at 7.7 rebounds a game. Shareef, Reynolds, and Crawford carry no injury designations into this game, and Northern Colorado averages 42.7 rebounds and 22.3 assists a game.

South Dakota State is 3-0 out of the Summit League, scoring 73.3 points a game and allowing 61.3 this season, winning with defense and patience. Last season's Jackrabbits went 14-18, scoring 75.4 a game and allowing 72.8, so this season's defensive start is a clear step up, even in three games.

Jon Mekonnen leads South Dakota State at 14.7 points a game, EJ Ryans leads the Jackrabbits at 3.3 assists a game, and Kalen Garry leads them at 6.0 rebounds a game. Mekonnen, Ryans, and Garry carry no injury designations into this game, and South Dakota State turns the ball over just 10.0 times a game.

Key Factors

The first factor is the shooting gap. Northern Colorado shoots 55 percent as a team and 45 percent from three; South Dakota State shoots 45 percent as a team. The Jackrabbits allow 61.3 points a game, but that defense has not faced an offense moving the ball like this: 22.3 assists a game means the Bears rarely settle for the first contested look. A disciplined defense can survive one hot shooter; it struggles against five players sharing the ball at this level of efficiency.

The second factor is the glass on a neutral floor. Northern Colorado averages 42.7 rebounds a game to South Dakota State's 33.3, with Crawford at 7.7 a game leading the way. Second chances are poison against a favorite that wants a slow, low-possession game, because every offensive rebound restarts the pressure on the Jackrabbits' defense. Inside a 151.5 total, the Bears' extra possessions are also how the underdog keeps the scoreboard moving even if the threes cool off.

The honest counterpoint is that South Dakota State is unbeaten for a reason, and its style is built for exactly this kind of game. The Jackrabbits protect the ball at 10.0 turnovers a game, force 9.3 steals a game on the other end, and will try to turn this into a grind where Mekonnen is the most reliable scorer on the floor.

Northern Colorado's defense, allowing 68.7 a game against a soft opening slate, has not been tested by a team this patient. If the Bears' shooting regresses toward normal on a neutral floor with unfamiliar sight lines, the favorite's discipline wins the night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.