Southern Jaguars vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Southern is 0-4 with every game on the road, and the road does not ease up in Minneapolis. Minnesota is 3-0 after a two-point win at Cincinnati, built on a defense allowing 57.7 points a game.

The Matchup

Southern visits Minnesota on Thursday night at The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota in Minneapolis, with Minnesota a 24.5-point favorite, a total of 140.5, on B1G+. Southern has not played a home game yet this season, and this is the fifth straight road gym the Jaguars have walked into.

Southern is 0-4, scoring 60.2 points a game and allowing 87.5, and every loss came on the road. The Jaguars lost 72-85 at SMU, lost 54-106 at TCU, lost 68-75 at Drake and lost 47-84 at Iowa State on Monday. Read those four results as two different teams. At SMU and Drake, Southern stayed within single digits or close to it against solid opponents.

At TCU and Iowa State, the game got away completely. Last season Southern went 17-17 in the SWAC, scoring 79.6 and allowing 77.9, so this roster comes from a .500 league team, not a program that expects to be buried nightly. The Iowa State loss is the freshest result and the ugliest, with the starting five shut down almost completely while the bench kept the score respectable.

Minnesota is 3-0, scoring 74.7 points a game and allowing 57.7. The Golden Gophers beat North Dakota 85-50 and St. Thomas 76-62 at home, then went to Cincinnati on Monday and won 63-61, a genuine road result against a power conference opponent. Last season Minnesota went 15-18 in the Big Ten, scoring 69.4 and allowing 68.5, and this start, built on defense first, looks like a team winning with control rather than firepower. The Gophers come home Thursday off the best win of their young season, which is both a confidence boost and the classic setup for a flat first half.

Joseph Hunter, Lionel Larvadain and R'Chaun King carry no injury designations for Southern, and Kyan Evans, Isaac Asuma and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson carry no injury designations for Minnesota.

Key Factors

Southern's bench is the strangest and most useful fact in this game. At Iowa State, Hunter scored 10 points with 6 rebounds in 16 minutes off the bench. Larvadain scored 10 more and hit 2 of 3 three-pointers, and King added 7 points and 7 rebounds, while the five starters combined for 9 points.

A team whose second unit outplays its first has obvious problems, but it also has fresh scorers who can keep an ugly game from becoming a laugher late, which is exactly what a spread this large comes down to. Southern does not need to lead. It needs its bench minutes to not be a surrender.

Minnesota's profile cuts against covering huge numbers. The Gophers have allowed 57.7 points a game and win by strangling possessions, and their own scoring sits at 74.7 a game, with the Cincinnati win coming at 63 points behind Evans and his 26 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists.

Slow, controlled favorites cover big spreads by stacking stops without ever speeding up, and it works until the underdog trades enough baskets to keep the margin in the teens. Southern scored 72 at SMU and 68 at Drake, so the Jaguars have already shown they can reach the high 60s in a road gym against a real defense when the starters play to their level.

The counterpoint is that two of Southern's four road games were not competitive at all. TCU beat the Jaguars by 52 and Iowa State by 37, and Minnesota has held all three of its opponents to 62 points or fewer this season.

If the Gophers defend like that from the opening tip, Southern's starters could vanish the way they did Monday and no bench can rescue a game already 30 points gone. The bet is that a home favorite coming off an emotional Monday road win, playing a slow style by design, lets this one breathe just enough in the second half for a deep underdog to stay inside the number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.