Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Southern has allowed 85 and 106 points in two road games, and no Jaguar has scored more than 12 points in a game this season. Drake's entire case file is one 101-48 win over a Division III visitor, which makes this the strangest double-digit favorite on the board.

The Matchup

Southern visits Drake on Sunday afternoon at the Knapp Center in Des Moines, with Drake a 13.5-point favorite, a total of 151.5, and the Bulldogs priced at -1,050 on the moneyline against Southern at +675. Neither team's first week tells a clean story, but Southern's is the louder one: the Jaguars have been beaten soundly twice, and Drake has played once, against a team from a lower division.

Southern lost 85-72 at SMU and 106-54 at TCU, and the offense has been as thin as the defense. R'Chaun King led the Jaguars at SMU with 12 points and 6 rebounds, Daniel Dormu handed out 7 assists in that game, and at TCU no Southern player scored more than Aaron Hall's 8 points.

Drake's only outing is a 101-48 home win over Central College, a Division III program, with Jon Carroll scoring 20, Justin Burns adding 14 points and 8 rebounds, and Owen Larson contributing 11 points and 5 assists. Last season, across the full season, Southern finished 17-17, scoring 79.6 points a game and allowing 77.9, and Drake finished 14-20, scoring 75.1 and allowing 74.8. Those are last season's numbers, and they say Southern was the slightly better team a year ago; this season's gap comes from the schedules, because Southern opened at two high-major buildings while Drake's single data point came against a Division III visitor it was supposed to overwhelm.

Key Factors

Southern's defense is where this game starts. The Jaguars have allowed 95.5 points a game, and they have paired it with 63.0 points a game of their own scoring, which is the profile of a team that has to defend far too many possessions with no margin for error. Drake's rotation produced balanced scoring in its one game, with four players in double figures, and at home it will ask Southern's defense questions for a full forty minutes rather than the bursts SMU and TCU needed.

The total of 151.5 expects a fast, loose game, and Southern's two games have each cleared 155 points, so the environment the market expects is the one the Jaguars keep creating. The counterpoint is real, and it is Drake's evidence problem: a 53-point win over Central College proves almost nothing, last season's Bulldogs were a break-even team that finished below .500, and Southern was the better side over a full season a year ago.

If the Jaguars' first week says more about SMU and TCU than about Southern, this number is too big. The bet is that it does not, because a team that cannot keep anyone under 85 rarely fixes that in its third straight road game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.