Southern Jaguars vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Iowa State's defense allowed 65.6 points a game last season and Southern is 0-3, so the Cyclones should control Hilton Coliseum. But Southern has already played TCU and SMU on the road, and a winless team that has seen real athletes is a different underdog than its record suggests.

The Matchup

Southern visits Iowa State on Tuesday night at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, on ESPN+, with Iowa State a 33.5-point favorite and a total of 147.5. No moneyline is posted for this game. It pairs a Big 12 contender with a SWAC visitor still looking for its first win.

Iowa State is 1-1, having scored 79.5 points a game and allowed 68.5. Tre Singleton has been the Cyclones' best player, at 19.5 points and 10.0 rebounds a game, and Jaquan Johnson leads them at 3.5 assists a game. The fuller picture on Iowa State is last season's, and it is a strong one: 82.0 points scored and just 65.6 allowed across 37 games, one of the best defenses in the country.

Southern is 0-3, and the schedule explains some of it. The Jaguars lost 106-54 at TCU, 75-68 at Drake, and 85-72 at SMU. They have scored 64.7 points a game and allowed 88.7. Malik Ferguson leads them at just 9.3 points a game, Daniel Dormu leads them at 4.3 assists a game, and Aaron Hall leads them at 4.0 rebounds a game.

Last season, against SWAC competition, Southern scored 79.6 and allowed 77.9 across 34 games. This season's early numbers are what a buy-game schedule does to a mid-major. No player on either side carries an injury designation in the ESPN report for this game.

Key Factors

Southern's scoring problem is real and it is the first thing to name. A team whose leading scorer averages 9.3 points a game has no release valve when a defense like Iowa State's takes away the first action. The Jaguars have scored 64.7 a game, and the Cyclones allowed 65.6 a game across all of last season. For Southern to stay inside this number, it does not need a good offensive night; it needs a merely ordinary one, plus a slower game.

The counterweight is the sheer size of the ask. Iowa State has scored 79.5 a game this season, and covering 33.5 requires sustained defensive intensity long after the outcome is settled, in a nonconference game where the rotation naturally loosens. Southern has also now played three straight road games against power-conference athletes, at TCU, Drake, and SMU, and lost the Drake game by only 7. Battle-hardened is too strong a phrase for an 0-3 team, but this group will not be frightened by Hilton Coliseum.

The honest counterpoint is that Iowa State can name its score if the game stays serious. Singleton is averaging a double-double, Southern allowed 106 at TCU, and a turnover binge against the Cyclones' pressure turns a manageable game into a rout within four minutes. If the Jaguars' ball handling cracks early, this number is reachable and then some.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.