St. Louis Blues vs Utah Mammoth Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Utah converts 37.1 percent on its power play and St. Louis kills 84.8 percent of its penalties, and Thursday in Salt Lake City turns on which of those units bends. Utah has to do it without its top goal scorer, and that absence hangs over everything the Mammoth do well.

The Matchup

Utah is 10-7-1, scoring 3.50 goals per game and allowing 3.50, a differential of exactly zero that has defined the Mammoth season: the attack is real and the defending gives it back. Utah is 4-2-0 at Delta Center, and the home version leans on the power play and on Clayton Keller, who has 24 points on 19 assists and runs the Mammoth offense from the half wall. What Utah cannot lean on Thursday is its finisher, and that changes the shape of the home case before the puck drops.

St. Louis is 8-8-2, scoring 2.94 per game and allowing 3.06 for a -0.11 differential, and the Blues are 3-6-1 on the road. Jimmy Snuggerud leads St. Louis with 10 goals and 14 points, and Robert Thomas has 11 assists. The Blues are the steadier defensive team in this game and the better penalty kill, and their road problem is scoring: 2.94 a night is a thin attack to take into a building where the home team trades chances for a living.

Key Factors

Availability leads this game, and it cuts against Utah. Logan Cooley is out tonight for Utah. He leads the Mammoth with 11 goals and is on the out list with an upper body injury. Dylan Guenther is on injured reserve with an upper body injury, and Nate Schmidt and John Marino are on injured reserve with upper body injuries, so Utah is missing its top scorer and two regular defensemen at once.

Keller's creation now has to finish through secondary scorers, and that is the honest limit on the home case. St. Louis lists Torey Krug on injured reserve with an ankle injury, Pierce Dube on injured reserve with a neck injury, and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve after knee surgery.

The special teams collision is the game's hinge. Utah converts 37.1 percent on the power play, the best mark on the Thursday slate, and St. Louis kills 84.8 percent of its penalties, a strong unit built for exactly this test. Keller has 13 power-play assists, so the Mammoth man advantage runs through the player Utah still has.

The other direction is quieter: St. Louis converts 22.0 percent against a Utah kill of 69.6 percent, the weakest unit in the game, so the Blues get their own chances with the extra man. In net, Joel Hofer is at a 2.33 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage in 13 games for St. Louis, a clear edge over Karel Vejmelka at 3.29 and .870 in 13 for Utah, with Sebastian Cossa at 3.30 and .871 behind him in the Utah listing. Hofer is the best goaltending argument in the game, and it belongs to the visitors.

The St. Louis case is Hofer, the kill, and a Utah team missing Cooley and Guenther at the same time. It fails on the road season and the scoring: the Blues are 3-6-1 away from home, score 2.94 a night, and face a Utah team that still creates through Keller at a rate few home sides match. The absences keep this close. They do not flip it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.