Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Utah converts 38.3 percent of its power plays, a number no other unit in this game comes close to, and Ottawa kills 73.8 percent of its penalties. Two teams with identical 10-6-1 records meet in Ottawa, and the power play is exactly where identical stops applying.

The Matchup

Utah is 10-6-1, scoring 3.59 goals per game and allowing 3.47, a +0.12 differential from a team that plays open hockey and usually wins it. Logan Cooley has 11 goals and Clayton Keller has 22 points on 18 assists. The Mammoth have gone 5-4-1 over their last ten, the ordinary part of their page, and the extraordinary part is what happens when an opponent takes a penalty.

Ottawa is also 10-6-1, scoring 3.06 per game and allowing 3.06 for a dead-even 0.00 differential. Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 9 goals, 13 assists, and 22 points. Ottawa is 5-2-0 at home and 7-2-1 over its last ten, the hotter form line in this game. The Senators win close, low-event games. Utah does not play those, and that clash of styles is the whole night.

Key Factors

The power play gap is the largest single mismatch on the Saturday slate. Utah converts 38.3 percent with the extra man. Ottawa kills 73.8 percent of its penalties. One Utah power play goal is close to a scheduled event, and the Mammoth usually get more than one look. Ottawa's own power play converts 12.1 percent, the weakest in this game, against a Utah kill of 70.4 percent, so the Senators cannot answer in kind even against a shaky kill.

Ottawa's crease is the second problem. Linus Ullmark is out tonight, per the Senators' injury report, with a lower body injury, and Ridly Greig is out with a lower body injury as well.

Utah is missing John Marino, who is out with a lower body injury, Maveric Lamoureux, who is out with a lower body injury, and Nate Schmidt and Kailer Yamamoto, who are both out. Karel Vejmelka has a 3.31 goals-against average and a .872 save percentage for Utah, so the Mammoth are not winning this in their own net. They are winning it at the other end.

The Ottawa case is the home record, the last ten, and a building where the Senators keep games tight. It fails because tight only works if the penalties stay even and the kill holds, and a 73.8 percent kill facing a 38.3 percent power play is not a plan. Utah scores 3.59 a night with the better top end, and one extra power play goal is the margin this market is really pricing.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.