Detroit Red Wings vs St. Louis Blues Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Detroit arrives in St. Louis without Dylan Larkin, and the Red Wings were already the lower-scoring team in this game at 2.61 goals per game. The Blues are no powerhouse at 7-8-2, but Tuesday asks a simpler question: what is left of Detroit's attack when its captain and top center is watching from the press box?

The Matchup

St. Louis is 7-8-2, scoring 2.94 goals per game and allowing 3.12, a -0.18 differential. Jimmy Snuggerud leads the Blues with 9 goals, and Philip Broberg leads the team with 13 points on 9 assists. The Blues are 4-2-1 at the Enterprise Center, where their game is heavier and more patient than it is on the road. Nobody is confusing St. Louis with a contender this season, but at home the Blues defend in front of their goaltender and wait for the other team's mistakes.

Detroit is 7-8-3, scoring 2.61 per game and allowing 3.00 for a -0.39 differential, and the Red Wings' road record of 3-3-2 matches the team: competitive, short on finishing. Alex DeBrincat leads Detroit with 16 points, Lucas Raymond has 10 assists, and Viktor Arvidsson has 8 goals. The offense runs through a small group even at full strength, which is what makes the name missing on Tuesday so expensive.

Key Factors

Dylan Larkin is out tonight. He is on injured reserve under a suspension designation, with a return date of November 14. Detroit loses its top center, its matchup answer against the Blues' best line, and a piece of both special teams units in one absence.

Marco Kasper is out on injured reserve with an upper body injury and Mason Appleton is out on injured reserve, so the center depth behind Larkin is thin at exactly the wrong time. John Gibson is day-to-day for Detroit with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Gibson plays before placing a bet.

The crease picture cuts both ways, which keeps this honest. Joel Hofer is at 2.36 and .919 for St. Louis in twelve games, while Jordan Binnington has struggled at 4.27 and .851. Detroit's Daniil Tarasov is at 2.10 and .919, the best numbers in the game, and Gibson is at 3.46 and .860. If Tarasov starts, Detroit's best path is a goaltending steal.

The special teams lean the other way: St. Louis converts 22.4 percent on the power play against a Detroit kill of 69.0 percent, and the Blues kill 84.4 percent against a Detroit power play converting 21.7 percent. A Larkin-less power play against that kill is a hard way to chase a game.

The Detroit case is Tarasov, DeBrincat, and a Blues team that is barely better in the standings. It fails because Detroit scores 2.61 a night with Larkin, and without him the Red Wings have to win a low game on the road against the better home team with the better power play matchup. Steals happen. They are not the side to price as the likelier outcome.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.