Temple vs East Carolina Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Temple arrives in Greenville rested, with a rushing attack that averages 202.1 yards per game and a quarterback who protects the ball. East Carolina scores at a similar rate but gives the ball away far more often.

The Matchup

Ajani Sheppard is coming off the kind of game that travels well. Sheppard completed 15 of 23 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown against Charlotte, averaging 10.3 yards per attempt, and Sheppard also ran 7 times for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. Peter Clarke caught 5 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown in that 38-31 loss.

Sheppard has thrown for 1,127 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, and Temple quarterbacks have thrown only 1 interception all season. Temple averages 25.7 points per game, runs for 202.1 yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry, and converts 41.7 percent on third down. East Carolina averages 25.0 points per game, a nearly identical scoring number, but East Carolina converts only 31.3 percent on third down.

TJ Engleman Jr. ran 18 times for 92 yards and a touchdown at Memphis, and Engleman has 582 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns this season. Temple has had 13 days since its last game, while East Carolina played on October 22. The setup favors the rested visitor if Sheppard stays efficient. East Carolina allows 26.3 points per game and has not faced many quarterbacks who add 10.0 yards per carry on the ground the way Sheppard did last game.

Key Factors

Ball security separates these teams more than scoring does. Temple has 6 giveaways this season. East Carolina has 13 giveaways, and East Carolina quarterbacks have thrown 6 interceptions. In a game where the offenses average 25.7 and 25.0 points per game, an extra possession or two is often the margin, and Temple is far more likely to receive that gift than to give it.

Temple's ground game also fits a road underdog. At 202.1 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry, Temple can shorten the game and keep East Carolina's offense watching. The counterpoint is East Carolina's pass rush and Engleman's consistency. East Carolina has 19 sacks against only 9 for Temple, and pressure is the best way to make Sheppard play faster than Sheppard wants to play.

Engleman averaged 5.1 yards per carry at Memphis, and East Carolina lost that game 41-34 despite scoring 34 points. If East Carolina protects the ball and Engleman keeps the Pirates on schedule, East Carolina can win by a touchdown at home. Temple also lost to Charlotte and UConn in its last two home games before the break, so the rest has to translate into sharper execution, not just fresh legs.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.