Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Texas, No. 11 in the AP Top 25, is laying 21 points at home after losing two of its last three games. Mississippi State scores 30.0 points per game, almost exactly Texas's 30.7, and that scoring base makes three touchdowns a steep price in Austin.

The Matchup

Fluff Bothwell is the player Mississippi State's cover case runs through. Bothwell carried 17 times for 111 yards at 6.5 yards per carry in Mississippi State's most recent game, and Bothwell has 514 rushing yards on 91 carries this season. Mississippi State runs for 175.0 yards per game and passes for 264.7 yards per game, a balanced offense that scores 30.0 points per game.

Texas scores 30.7 points per game, so the raw scoring gap between these teams is less than a point, even though the spread is 21. Texas builds its margin on defense and on Raleek Brown. Texas allows 19.1 points per game, and Brown carried 23 times for 157 yards at 6.8 yards per carry in Texas's most recent game, a 34-27 win over Ole Miss.

Arch Manning went 18 of 30 for 212 yards and a touchdown in that game, and Ryan Wingo caught 7 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Texas has the higher ceiling at home. Mississippi State's job is to use Bothwell to keep Manning and Wingo watching, and to turn Texas's long drives into field goals instead of touchdowns.

Key Factors

Mississippi State's recent results cut both ways. Mississippi State lost 15-23 to Oklahoma in its most recent game, an 8-point loss to a strong opponent, but Mississippi State also lost 31-0 at LSU and 56-23 to Alabama in October. If the LSU version shows up in Austin, no spread is big enough. Texas has its own inconsistency.

Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns against 7 interceptions this season, Texas averages only 3.8 yards per carry as a team despite Brown's big game, and Texas lost to Oklahoma and Florida before beating Ole Miss by 7 points. Mississippi State converts 43.2 percent on third down against 39.2 percent for Texas, which helps Bothwell's drives last.

Mississippi State allows 27.7 points per game, the risk in the case, because Wingo has 456 yards and 4 touchdowns this season and can punish a defense that crowds the run. What beats Mississippi State here is Texas repeating Brown's 157-yard game while Manning protects the ball. That combination lets Texas score into the high 30s, and Mississippi State would need its full 30-point average on the road to answer.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.