Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 11

Texas Tech, No. 10 in the AP Top 25, brings an 8-1 record into Boone Pickens Stadium for a night game against the most explosive offense it has faced all season. Oklahoma State scores in the mid-40s and Drew Mestemaker is dealing, so the Red Raiders' ranking is about to get a serious examination.

The Matchup

Oklahoma State's offense is the story of this game, and Texas Tech's defense is about to find out whether its numbers travel. Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 2,962 yards with 29 touchdowns this season, and the Cowboys average 339.1 passing yards a game at a remarkable 9.6 yards per attempt. That is not dink-and-dunk efficiency, that is a vertical attack hitting big plays snap after snap.

Mestemaker was at it again in the last game, throwing for 313 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Caleb Hawkins balances the whole thing with 1,081 rushing yards this season, including 175 yards and 3 touchdowns in that same outing. When a team can run for 8.8 yards a carry with its lead back and throw for 11.2 yards an attempt with its quarterback in the same game, the defense has no honest answer. Texas Tech is not a soft touch, though, and the Red Raiders deserve respect as a top-ten team.

They score 37.6 points a game and allow just 24.1, the best defensive mark in this matchup by a clear distance. Thomas Castellanos was spectacular in the most recent game, throwing for 362 yards and 5 touchdowns without an interception, and J'Koby Williams ran for 160 yards and a touchdown in that game on the back of a 954-yard season. Kenny Johnson caught 2 touchdown passes in that game too, so the Red Raiders can absolutely trade blows. The problem is the setting and the arithmetic.

Oklahoma State scores 43.9 points a game, put up 66 at Kansas State, and plays this one at home at night. Texas Tech's defense has 29 sacks and 13 interceptions, real weapons, but Mestemaker gets the ball out to an offense that has too many answers. The Red Raiders need this to be a game in the thirties. The Cowboys will try to make it a game in the forties, and they usually get their way in Stillwater.

Key Factors

Texas Tech's pass rush is the one tool that can wreck Oklahoma State's evening, and the Cowboys know it. The Red Raiders have 29 sacks this season, and Mestemaker has thrown 8 interceptions, so he is not immune to pressure mistakes. If Texas Tech gets home early and forces the Cowboys into long yardage, the whole rhythm of that offense changes, and Will Hammond, who has thrown for 1,561 yards this season, can lean on Williams and a rushing attack averaging 214.7 yards a game to control the clock.

That is what beats this pick - the Red Raiders turning this into a physical, possession game, Castellanos or Hammond protecting the ball, and Oklahoma State's defense, which allows 27.2 points a game, cracking late against the run. The Cowboys have already lost a shootout this season, 51-49 at Iowa State, so the blueprint exists. Oklahoma State's counter is depth of firepower.

Justin Bowick has 44 catches for 790 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and Miles Coleman caught 6 passes for 95 yards and a score in the last game, so focusing on one receiver does not solve the problem. The Cowboys have also taken the ball away 11 times, and Texas Tech has 13 giveaways, which matters in a game where one empty possession can be the difference.

Both teams will score. The question is who scores last and who blinks, and at home, with the most productive quarterback in the game and a crowd that will be loud from the first snap, Oklahoma State has the better answers. Texas Tech is a worthy top-ten team. Worthy teams still lose in Stillwater when the Cowboys are rolling like this.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.