Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Oklahoma State brings the most explosive passing game on this slate to Ames after a 57-point outburst, while Iowa State returns home needing its ground game to slow a night that could otherwise get away quickly.

The Matchup

Drew Mestemaker makes Oklahoma State hard to contain for long. Mestemaker has thrown for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, and he went 21 of 36 for 386 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions in his most recent game, the kind of day that stretches a defense until it breaks. Oklahoma State averages 341.0 passing yards per game at 9.7 yards per attempt and scores 40.0 points per game, so the pressure never really lets up.

Caleb Hawkins keeps defenses honest behind that passing. Hawkins has 712 rushing yards this season, and he carried 19 times for 120 yards at 6.3 yards per carry in the most recent game. Iowa State cannot match that firepower throw for throw. The Cyclones average only 176.9 passing yards per game and score 25.9 points per game, numbers that say chasing is a losing plan.

Aiden Flora is how Iowa State changes the terms. Flora has 716 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on 102 carries this season, and Iowa State runs for 163.0 yards per game as a team. If Flora keeps Iowa State ahead of the chains at Jack Trice Stadium, Mestemaker spends long stretches watching instead of throwing.

Key Factors

Iowa State's problem is finishing drives, and third down shows it. The Cyclones convert only 29.4 percent, so Flora's runs do not help if drives stall at midfield and Mestemaker gets the ball right back. Jaylen Raynor offered little beyond efficiency in a small outing last time out, going 8 of 10 for 106 yards while Iowa State lost 39-3 at Arizona, a reminder of how thin the passing answer is.

Oklahoma State also finishes better through the air, with 21 passing touchdowns against 9 for Iowa State. Iowa State's defense has to do the heavy work and keep this close enough for the ground game to matter. The Cyclones allow 24.1 points per game, close to the 23.7 points per game Oklahoma State allows, and Iowa State has 10 takeaways this season, enough to steal a possession if the home crowd gets loud.

What beats Iowa State here is an early Mestemaker burst. If he heats up the way he did last week and Oklahoma State leads by two scores early, Flora's carries lose their value and Raynor has to throw into the game Iowa State cannot win. Iowa State needs a close first half more than it needs a big play.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.