Arizona vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Arizona is No. 22 in the AP Top 25 and Texas Tech is No. 13, and the two meet in Lubbock with matching records and opposite moods. Arizona arrives rolling, Texas Tech arrives off a loss at Cincinnati, and the steadier quarterback in this game wears the road uniform.
The Matchup
Noah Fifita gives Arizona the steadier quarterback play in this matchup, and the gap was obvious in the most recent game for each team. Fifita went 27 of 34 for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions, pushing his season line to 2,064 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Isaiah Mizell caught 8 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown in that game, with a long of 71, and Mizell is up to 493 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Arizona averages 310.9 passing yards per game at 9.1 yards per attempt, so the Wildcats move the ball in chunks without having to force anything. Texas Tech asks Will Hammond to keep pace, and Hammond managed 227 yards with no touchdowns and an interception last time out.
Hammond sits at 1,561 yards this season with as many interceptions as touchdowns, a profile that invites trouble. J'Koby Williams keeps Texas Tech balanced with 619 rushing yards, and Kenny Johnson is a reliable target underneath, but Texas Tech averages 35.9 points per game against an Arizona defense that brings real pressure. Hammond has less room for the mistakes that have followed him all season.
Key Factors
Arizona's defense is what makes this road trip work. The Wildcats allow 16.7 points per game compared with 20.4 for Texas Tech, and they have built a plus 19.4 net scoring margin while doing it. Texas Tech does have the counterpunch.
The Red Raiders play at home in Galaxy Stadium, average 189.7 rushing yards per game, and Williams runs behind a ground game producing 5.0 yards per carry, so Arizona cannot sit back and wait for Hammond to throw the game away. If Williams controls early downs and Hammond protects the ball, Texas Tech can keep Fifita standing on the sideline and win this by a touchdown.
The honest problem for the home side is third down. Arizona converts 54.0 percent compared with 38.4 percent for Texas Tech, and Fifita completes 73.8 percent of his passes for the season, so the Wildcats rarely waste a series with two straight empty throws. In a game lined at a field goal, the team that extends the one late drive usually decides everything, and that team has been Arizona all year.
Texas Tech may well win at home, but Arizona feels like the side less likely to blink late. Fifita plays a calm, clean game, and the Wildcats have the defense to keep this from ever turning into a chase. Take Arizona +3.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 12:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPN |
| VENUE | Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock |
| SPREAD | Texas Tech -3.5 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Texas Tech -175 |
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